交通运输业能源回弹效应实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 14:37

本文关键词：交通运输业能源回弹效应实证研究　出处：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着中国社会经济的快速发展和节能减排政策措施的实施推进，交通运输业能源使用效率逐步提升，但能源消费量并没有随着能源使用效率的提升而减少，反而呈现出了较为显著的增长趋势，这种在能源使用效率提高时能源消费量并未相应减少的现象被称为“回弹效应”。能源回弹效应在交通运输业的存在，使得交通运输业节能政策措施的实际效果与预计目标发生错位，在一定程度上阻碍政策措施的科学制定和有效实施。因此，如何通过深入研究交通运输业能源回弹效应，为相关节能政策措施的制定实施和效果评估提供参考借鉴将成为交通运输业节能减排研究的重要议题。本文界定了交通运输业能源回弹效应的基本概念及内涵，提出了交通运输业能源回弹效应的分析框架，分析了交通运输行业存在能源回弹效应的产生原因及作用机制，在此基础上建立了交通运输业能源回弹效应的基本测算模型；并且进一步分析了交通运输业技术进步对能源使用效率和能源消费总量变化的影响，提出了基于LMDI方法的交通运输业技术进步效应值测算模型以及基于改进C-D生产函数的交通运输业技术进步贡献率测算模型。基于上述测算模型，本文以中国2000-2010年交通运输业能源数据为基础进行了交通运输业能源回弹效应实证分析，测算了中国交通运输业总体能源回弹效应值及各种运输方式能源回弹效应值，研究结果表明：（1）2000-2010年，中国交通运输业技术进步的相关政策措施节能成效显著，但运输结构调整在一定程度上阻碍了能源消费量的减少。（2）2000-2010年，中国交通运输业整体的能源回弹效应处于较高的水平，且“十一五”期间的回弹效应值大于“十五”期间的回弹效应值，应进一步引导运输需求向低能耗行业转移。（3）2000-2010年，中国公路运输业回弹效应值低，且能源强度降低空间大、能源消费占比大，应成为重点节能领域；民航运输业能源强度最高，回弹效应值较高，能源消费增长过快，应重点加强技术节能和管理节能；铁路运输和水路运输是有利于能源节约的运输方式，应重点加强基础配套设施建设，提升服务水平，以更好的满足运输需求。（4）降低中国交通运输业的能源回弹效应，需要从交通运输技术进步、运输结构和企业规模调整以及运输用能管理等方面统筹协调，充分发挥能源市场和运输市场的调节作用，，以能源强度和能源消费量作为双重节能目标，切实形成多方联动。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the implementation of China to promote the rapid development of social economy and energy-saving emission reduction policies and measures, the efficiency of transportation energy increased gradually, but the energy consumption does not diminish with energy use efficiency, but showed a significant growth trend, the energy consumption in the improvement of energy efficiency has not the corresponding decrease in the phenomenon known as the "rebound effect". The existence of energy rebound effect in the transportation industry, the actual effect of such policies and measures of transportation industry and the expected goal dislocation, scientific formulation and effective implementation of policies and measures to hinder to a certain extent. Therefore, how to through the deep Research on the energy rebound effect of transportation to provide a reference for industry, will become the industry on energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation to formulate proposals for implementation and evaluation of energy saving policies and measures Questions.
This paper defines the basic concept and connotation of energy rebound effect of the transportation industry, put forward the analysis framework of transportation energy rebound effect, analysis of the existing energy rebound effect of transportation industry causes and mechanism, is established based on the basic model of calculating energy rebound effect of transportation; and further analyzes the traffic the transportation industry of technological progress on energy efficiency and effect of change of the total energy consumption calculation model is proposed based on the value of transportation industry technology progress effect LMDI method and calculation model of transportation technology progress contribution rate based on improved C-D production function.
The calculation model based on the Chinese 2000-2010 transportation energy data as the basis for the rebound effect of energy consumption of transportation industry analysis, calculates the energy rebound effect China transportation industry overall energy rebound effect value and the value of various modes of transport, the results of the study show that: (1) 2000-2010 years, such policies and measures related to the effectiveness of technology transportation industry China progress significantly, but the transportation structure adjustment to some extent hindered the reduction of energy consumption. (2) 2000-2010, China energy rebound effect transportation industry overall is in a higher level, and the "rebound effect" in 11th Five-Year during the rebound value effect is greater than the "fifteen" period value should be to further guide the transportation demand shifts to low energy consumption industry. (3) 2000-2010, China highway transportation industry rebound effect value is low, and the reduction of energy intensity space and energy consumption. A large proportion of fees, should be the key areas of energy conservation; civil aviation transportation industry energy intensity is highest, the rebound effect value is higher, the energy consumption growth, should focus on strengthening the management of energy saving and energy saving technology; railway transportation and waterway transportation is conducive to energy saving mode of transport, should focus on strengthening infrastructure construction, improve the service level. In order to better meet the demand of transportation. (4) reduce the energy rebound effect China transportation industry, need to progress from the transportation technology, energy management and other aspects of co-ordination with the transport structure and enterprise scale adjustment and transport, give full play to the regulating role of energy market and shipping market, with energy intensity and energy consumption as double the target of energy saving, the formation of multi linkage.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F512;F205

【参考文献】