private partnerships, traffic risk, delay option, government

  本文关键词：公路基础设施PPP项目交通量风险分担策略研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

公路基础设施PPP项目交通量风险分担策略研究

Research on. Traffic Risk Sharing Strategy for Public-Private-Partnerships Highway Infrastructure Projects

[1]

Guo Jian （School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081 ）

中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081

文章摘要：政府和私人合作模式（PPP模式）近年来在我国公路基础设施建设领域得到广泛的应用．然而由于交通需求量的高度不确定性，公路PPP项目的风险分担问题一直是学术界的热点和难点问题。本文采用实物期权方法研究不确定条件下延迟投资决策对公路PPP项目价值的影响，进而分析基于政府双边保证的交通量风险分担策略。政府和非政府投资主体在特许协议中规定双边收益保证条款，确定政府担保的项目运营收益上限和下限，以分散风险，政府担保可以看作是一系列欧式看跌期权和看涨期权的组合，运用Black-Scholes期权定价公式计算政府担保价值。最后将该延迟投资决策和风险分担策略应用于某高速公路基础设施项目进行案例分析。

Abstr：The model of public-private partnerships has been widely used in the field of highway infrastructure project in China in recent years. However, due to the high uncertainty of traffic demand risk, risk-sharing issue for the highway infrastructure project has been a focus of attention and a difficulty to be solved. Binomial tree pricing model can be used to analyze the impact of delayed investment to the value of PPP project and we study the effective way to mitigate the traffic risks using the government minimum and maximum guarantee based on real options. A series of contracts may be signed between government and private investors to ensure the revenues that the private investors obtain. Government guarantees can be seen as a series of European put and call option combinations and Black-Scholes option pricing fol~nula can be used to calculate the option value in the PPP contracts. Finally, the delayed investment decision-making and risk-sharing strategy is applied to a highway infrastructure project to illustrate the method above.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:public-private partnerships, traffic risk, delay option, government revenue guarantee, risk sharing

课题项目：教育部人文社会科学研究项目（09YJC630239）;中财121人才工程青年博士发展基金项目（QBJGL201007）.

作者信息：会员可见

  本文关键词：公路基础设施PPP项目交通量风险分担策略研究，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。