GL高速公路项目的财务评估研究

发布时间：2018-02-04 15:55

本文关键词： 项目财务评估投资估算风险评估敏感性分析　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融风暴的发生，给世界经济的发展造成了极大的损害。为了应对国际金融风暴所带来的不利影响，中国政府实施了积极的扩大内需政策，稳民生、保增长以及加快传统产业转型升级由此成为了中国国民经济发展的首要任务。政府投资与基础设施建设项目作为扩大内需与保增长政策实施的重点，得到了全社会的广泛关注。在高速公路建设方面，中央政府强调要以国家高速公路网建设为龙头，加强省际连接线建设，到2015年基本建成国家高速公路网。GL高速公路项目是国家与广东省高速公路网规划的重要组成部分，它的建设对于国家与广东省高速公路网络的健全与完善，区域公路网布局的优化以及行车条件的改善，都具有重要意义。本文按照工程经济分析的理论方法，针对GL高速公路项目进行财务评估和风险分析，不仅可为项目投资方的决策提供重要参考，而且可为该项目的顺利实施提供良好支持，因而具有重要的实际价值。本文在对国内外研究现状以及项目财务评估的基本理论、评估方法进行系统描述的基础上，采用定性分析与定量评估相结合、静态分析与动态分析相结合的方法对GL高速公路建设项目进行了财务评估与风险分析。通过收集与分析GL高速公路建设项目投资估算、资金筹措、成本费用以及未来收益的相关资料，，计算得出该项目税后内部收益率为5.58%，高于项目的基准收益率；税后折现净现值高达332,431.91万元，远远大于零；静态投资回收期为24.3年，动态投资回收期为27.1年，均小于设定的投资回收期。由此说明，该项目在财务上是可行的。为了提高财务评估结论的可靠性，本文进一步对GL高速公路建设项目进行风险分析。其中，财务敏感性分析结果表明，采用25年运营期，即时在建设投资增加10%同时交通量降低10%的极端不利的情况下，项目的财务内部收益率仍然高于基准收益率，说明项目具备一定的抗风险能力。最后，本文还从外部环境风险和企业内部风险两个方面，对项目涉及的法律法规风险、经济环境风险、国家政策风险、市场风险、技术风险、运营风险、财务风险进行了较为详细的分析，并提出积极应对风险的相关建议。本文研究结果表明，GL高速公路建设项目能够预定的时间内收回成本并带来可观的经济效益和社会效益，同时也具备较强的抵御风险的能力。整体而言，该项目在财务上是可行的。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the international financial storm caused great damage to the development of the world economy. In order to cope with the adverse effects of the international financial storm, the Chinese government has implemented a positive policy of expanding domestic demand. To stabilize people's livelihood, maintain growth and speed up the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has become the primary task of China's national economic development. Government investment and infrastructure projects as the focus of the implementation of policies to expand domestic demand and maintain growth. In the aspect of highway construction, the central government emphasizes the national highway network construction as the leading point, and strengthens the construction of interprovincial connection line. By 2015, the national highway network. GL expressway project is an important part of the national and Guangdong province highway network planning. Its construction is of great significance for the improvement of highway network between China and Guangdong province, the optimization of regional highway network layout and the improvement of driving conditions. This paper is based on the theory and method of engineering economic analysis. The financial evaluation and risk analysis of GL expressway project can not only provide an important reference for the decision of the project investors, but also provide good support for the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore, it has important practical value. Based on the systematic description of domestic and foreign research status and the basic theories and methods of project financial evaluation, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative evaluation. Combining static analysis and dynamic analysis, this paper carries on financial evaluation and risk analysis to GL expressway construction project. Through collecting and analyzing GL expressway construction project investment estimate, raise funds. The relative information of cost and future income is calculated, and the internal rate of return after tax is 5.58, which is higher than the benchmark rate of return of the project. The net present value of after-tax discounted cash is as high as 332, four million three hundred and nineteen thousand and one hundred yuan, far more than zero; The static investment payback period is 24.3 years, and the dynamic investment payback period is 27.1 years, which is less than the fixed investment payback period, which shows that the project is financially feasible. In order to improve the reliability of the financial evaluation conclusion, this paper further carries on the risk analysis to the GL highway construction project. Among them, the financial sensitivity analysis results show that the 25-year operation period is adopted. Even if the construction investment increased by 10% and the traffic volume decreased by 10%, the financial internal rate of return of the project is still higher than the benchmark rate of return, indicating that the project has a certain ability to resist risk. Finally. This article also from the external environment risk and the enterprise internal risk two aspects, the project involves the laws and regulations risk, the economic environment risk, the national policy risk, the market risk, the technical risk, the operation risk. The financial risk is analyzed in detail, and some suggestions are put forward to deal with the risk actively. The research results show that the project can recover the cost and bring considerable economic and social benefits within the scheduled time, but also has a strong ability to resist risks. The project is financially viable.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F542

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