航空客户消费行为分析与航班优化研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 02:21

本文关键词： 消费者行为分析机票超售航班优化航班延误波及效应　出处：《西南交通大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：航空物流运输是我国目前最有发展前景的一种物流运输方式。因为航空运输快速且价格高的特点,随着我国经济的快速发展,人民的生活水平有了长足进步,对于出行方式的选择,也从过去局限于陆路交通发展为越来越多的倾向于对航空交通方式的选择。航空交通的发展,不仅是国家经济发展和人民生活水平提高的反应,更是从侧面反应了一个国家科技水平和军事实力。因此,民航运输业的兴衰,从某种意义上关系到国家的整体发展和现代化进程。所以对于航空业和航空公司航班管理的研究就显得更加重要。论文首先论证了航空旅客消费行为分析在当今航空公司航空物流管理研究的重要性,其次基于前人的基础,本论文创新性利用数据手段(弹性计算以及聚类分析)分析影响旅客选择航班的因素,并将旅客消费订单进行细分,对于不同消费者提出不同的营销意见,有助于航空公司的市场营销。同时,通过消费者订单数据(非问卷调查)建立消费者流失模型,对不同消费者进行预测,有助于公司及时采取营销手段,预防消费者流失。然后,本论文研究了机票的超售问题。首先介绍了航空公司进行机票超售的原因和可能的影响因素；其次通过对机票超售策略的主要决定因素No-Show率或售乘率的分析,解释了现有的机票超售策略中存在的现象和问题,本论文还对No-Show率和售乘率进行了预测,使得航空公司可以以此进行机票超售管理,以实现航空公司利润最大化的目的。本论文还研究了航班延误的波及效应。航班延误在社会上越来越受到人们的关注,传统的文献已经对其进行了一系列的研究。与传统文献不同的是,本论文研究了航班延误的波及效应,即一架航班的延误对于其他航班的延误可能性的影响,本论文称之为波及效应。更加具体地,本论文进行了如下几个假设的验证,1)上一站的延误航班越多,飞机晚到造成的延误航班次数越多；2)首次延误航班的延误时间越长,航班延误波及效应越显著；3)机场自身对航班正点率有影响。最后,本论文还重点研究了市场旅客流量预测问题和航班频率优化问题。首先以航空市场旅客流量的基本特征为出发点,建立季节性组合预测模型,并以此预测相关航线上的旅客流量,然后以成本最小化为目标,建立航班频率优化模型。在此基础上,选用中国南方航空股份有限公司大连分公司的相关航线数据为例进行实证分析。本论文的创新点在于进一步优化航空市场旅客流量的预测模型和航班频率优化模型,并且从实证角度加以证明其可行性。本论文在以下几个方面对相关领域的文献做出了贡献。首先,对于航空公司以消费者为基础的研究文献几乎没有以消费者数据和航班数据为资料,而本论文创新性地提出从消费者消费行为数据、航班相关数据等方面进行研究,一方面,相较于理论型或者逻辑分析型的文章,本论文具有更加真实的实证证据。另一方面,消费者行为数据和航班相关数据是消费者行为和航空公司航班管理的真实数据反应,从其中所总结出来的现象就是可以代表消费者行为和航空公司航班管理的行为。其次,基于本论文数据的优势,本论文得以在实证分析部分加入聚类分析、季度趋势等先进的实证分析方法,为本论文的分析和结论添加更加具有说服力的证据。再次,本论文对航空公司航班管理的出发点相较于传统领域的文献具有重大创新,即以消费者行为分析为出发点,这样进行分析的好处就是,消费者是航空公司的主要服务对象,消费者的行为趋势对航空公司的政策都有直接的影响,所以本论文从此出发,更能体现航空公司本身的航班管理目的。
[Abstract]:Aviation logistics transportation is a mode of transport logistics in our country at present the most promising features of air transport. Because of rapid and high price, with China's rapid economic development, people's living standard has made great progress, for the choice of travel mode, from the past limited to road traffic development tendency for more and more on air traffic patterns. The development of air traffic, not only is the national economic development and people's living standards improve the response, is from the side reflects a country's scientific and technological level and military strength. Therefore, the rise and fall of civil aviation transportation industry, from some kind of significance to the country's overall development and modernization. So research on flight management in the aviation industry and aviation companies becomes more and more important.
The paper first discusses the importance of consumer behavior analysis of air passengers in today's airline aviation logistics management research. Secondly on the basis of predecessors, this thesis use innovative methods of data (elastic computing and cluster analysis) to analyze the influencing factors of passenger flight choice, and the consumer orders passenger segments, put forward different views for different consumer marketing, help airline marketing. At the same time, through the consumer orders data (non questionnaire) to establish consumer loss model, to predict different consumers, help the company to take timely preventive means of marketing, consumers lost. Then, overbooking problem is studied in this thesis. First introduced the ticket of airline ticket factors of overbooking and possible influence; followed by the main decision on the overbooking strategy factors of No-Show rate or rate of sale by The analysis, explain the phenomena and problems of existing overbooking strategy, this paper also gives a forecast of the No-Show rate and rate of sale by the airlines, can also be used for ticket sale management, in order to achieve airline profit maximization objective. This paper also studies the effect of flight delays. The society people pay more attention to the flight delay, the traditional literature has carried out a series of studies on it. Different from the traditional literature, this thesis studies a ripple effect of flight delays, flight delays of flights delay for other possibilities, we call this effect. More specifically, this paper verified the following hypothesis, 1) more flight delays on a station, the aircraft late more flight delays caused by the time delay; 2) for the first time the flight delay is longer, airlines The class delay propagation effect is more obvious; 3) the airport itself has an impact on the flight punctuality rate. Finally, the paper also focuses on the problems and optimization of flight frequency market passenger traffic. Firstly, the basic characteristics of aviation market passenger flow as the starting point, the establishment of a seasonal combination forecasting model, and to predict the passenger traffic route the cost and then to minimize the flight frequency optimization model. On this basis, the route data China South Uni Airways Corporation Dalian branch as an example of empirical analysis. The innovation of this paper is to further optimize the market of aviation passenger flow forecasting model and flight frequency optimization model, and proved its feasibility from the empirical point of view.
This paper contributes to the literature in the following aspects. First of all, for the airline consumer based on almost no literature to consumer data and flight data, this paper innovatively presents data from consumer behavior, research, flight data on the one hand, compared to the the theory or logical analysis type of article, this paper has the empirical evidence is more real. On the other hand, consumer behavior data and flight related data is real data of consumer behavior and airline flight management, from which summed up the phenomenon that can represent the consumer behavior and flight management of airlines. Secondly, the data of this paper is based on the advantages of cluster analysis in the empirical analysis part, empirical analysis of quarterly trend and other advanced methods And add more convincing evidence for the analysis and conclusion of this thesis. Thirdly, the starting point of the field of traditional airline flight management compared to the literature has a major innovation in consumer behavior analysis as a starting point, this analysis of the benefits is that consumers are the main service objects are airlines. Have a direct impact on consumer behavior trends in policy of the airline, so this paper on the basis of this, to better reflect the airline flight management itself.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562;F713.55

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