我国海上煤炭运输通道保障能力评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 19:33

本文选题：海上煤炭运输通道　切入点：保障能力　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤炭作为我国工业发展及生活的主要能源,一直在我国能源消耗中占据重要地位。而我国煤炭资源“北多南少、西多东少”的分布格局,致使煤炭运输,在我国能源运输中占据重要地位。由于水电无法满足生产生活需求,煤炭运输的保障供给,对我国华东华南地区的生产生活产生举足轻重的影响,并且在短期内不会改变。然而,我国煤炭运输通道中存在诸多问题,包括：铁路运输通道挟制整个运输通道,是整个运输系统的瓶颈；海上运输通道中,运力过剩、船舶老化,港口综合通过能力有待进一步提高；运输通道系统的供应均衡性较差,需求的季节波动性使保障供给能力呈现出“旺季不足淡季过剩”不经济的局面；煤炭运输通道运输格局转变,尤其是进出口运输通道的转变,致使总体保障供给能力增强,国内保障供给能力过剩的局面出现。因此对海上煤炭运输保障能力的研究显得十分必要。为此,本文基于结构方程理论,通过AMOS软件来探索海运煤炭运输通道保障能力这一问题。首先,明确了我国海运煤炭运输通道的概念及研究范围。其次,对我国沿海煤炭运输通道现状进行了分析,建立海上煤炭运输通道保障能力评价模型的指标体系,并通过调研获得所需数据,用SPSS软件进行信度分析、因子分析,确定数据的可靠性及研究的价值。再次,基于结构方程理论,借助AMOS软件,建立模型的路径图,通过软件仿真对指标体系建立相关分析,从实证结果得出影响我国海运煤炭保障能力最直接最相关的因素,并依照各因素的重要性顺序,给出煤炭运输通道建设应优先考虑的重点,提出提高我国海上煤炭运输通道保障能力的发展对策。
[Abstract]:Coal, as the main energy for industrial development and life in China, has always occupied an important position in energy consumption in China. However, the distribution pattern of coal resources in our country is "more north than south, less west than east", resulting in coal transportation. It plays an important role in the energy transportation of our country. Because hydropower can't meet the demand of production and living, the supply of coal transportation has a decisive influence on the production and life of the east and south China. However, there are many problems in China's coal transport channels, including: railway transportation channels hold the entire transport channel, which is the bottleneck of the whole transportation system; in the maritime transport channels, the transport capacity is excess, the ships are aging, The comprehensive passing capacity of the port needs to be further improved, the supply equilibrium of the transportation corridor system is poor, and the seasonal fluctuation of demand makes the guarantee supply capacity uneconomical, which is not enough in the peak season and surplus in the off-season. The transformation of the transport pattern of coal transport channels, especially the transformation of import and export transport channels, has led to an increase in the overall support supply capacity. The situation of oversupply of domestic guarantee supply appears, so it is very necessary to study the support capacity of coal transportation by sea. Therefore, based on the theory of structural equation, this paper explores the problem of the support capacity of marine coal transportation channels through AMOS software. Firstly, the concept and research scope of marine coal transportation channels in China are clarified. This paper analyzes the present situation of the coal transportation channel in coastal China, establishes the index system of the evaluation model of the support ability of the coal transport channel in the sea, obtains the needed data through investigation and research, and makes reliability analysis and factor analysis with SPSS software. Thirdly, based on the structural equation theory, with the help of AMOS software, the path diagram of the model is established, and the related analysis of the index system is established by software simulation. From the empirical results, the author draws the most direct and relevant factors that affect China's marine coal transportation ability, and according to the order of importance of each factor, gives the key points that should be given priority to the construction of coal transport passage. The development countermeasures of improving the support capacity of China's maritime coal transport channels are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U695.2

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