基于DID模型的交通运输业营改增政策效果研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 05:31

本文选题：交通运输业　切入点：营改增　出处：《哈尔滨理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：营改增作为我国财税体制改革的“重头戏”,以短期财政收入的“减”换取持续发展势能的“增”,对我国经济的稳定发展具有重要意义,也为供给侧结构性改革助力增效。回顾改革之初,整体减税效果明显,但交通运输业一般纳税人的税负却不减反增,有学者认为这种现象并非反常,随着时间的推移,改革的红利会逐步释放,政策的影响可能存在一定的滞后性。虽然试点以来分析营改增对交通运输业影响的文献很多,但政策对行业税负和绩效影响结果的研究并没有形成定论,对滞后性效应的后续研究在国内外文献中均未见记载。值此营改增试点5年之际,论文运用目前国际计量经济学界的主流方法之一DID模型(即双重差分),跟进研究交通运输业营改增的政策效果,目的是验证预期的滞后性效应是否存在,考量目前交通运输业税改已经达到的效果。采用该方法的原因是可以规避已有研究中无法排除的其他共时性因素干扰,得到政策的净因果推断。文中首先对交通运输业营改增的中外文献分类梳理,力争本文选题立足国内外研究前沿,为避免已有文献存在的不足,确定本文的研究方法。其次简述交通运输业目前经营状态,界定不同纳税人身份,在阐述相关税收理论与绩效评价体系的基础上,分别从反映企业综合能力的四个方面找出政策具体通过哪些财务指标对企业的税负与绩效产生影响。实证研究部分选取在沪、深上市的58家交通运输公司为样本,采集企业2010-2016年的面板数据,建立考量营改增效果的DID模型,通过两次差分得到政策对企业影响的净效果,结论是预期的滞后性效应存在,营改增对企业的影响在改革初年最为明显,表现负向效应,以后逐年好转。最后针对营改增过程中面临的问题,提出具体应对措施。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the reform of our country's fiscal and taxation system, it is of great significance for the steady development of our economy to exchange the "reduction" of short-term financial revenue for the "increase" of the potential energy of sustainable development. In retrospect, at the beginning of the reform, the overall tax reduction effect was obvious, but the tax burden of the general taxpayers of the transportation industry did not decrease but instead increased. Some scholars believe that this phenomenon is not abnormal, as time goes on. The dividend of the reform will gradually be released, and the impact of the policy may have a certain lag. Although there have been a lot of literature on the impact of the camp reform on the transportation industry since the pilot project, However, the research on the effect of policy on industry tax burden and performance has not reached a conclusion, and the follow-up study on lag effect has not been recorded in domestic and foreign literature. In this paper, we use the DID model, one of the most popular methods in the international econometric field, to study the policy effect of the traffic and transportation industry. The purpose of this paper is to verify the existence of the expected lag effect. Considering the effect of the current tax reform in the transportation industry. The reason for adopting this method is to avoid the interference of other synchronic factors which can not be excluded from the existing research. The net causal inference of the policy is obtained. Firstly, the classification of the domestic and foreign literature on the increase of traffic and transportation industry is sorted out in order to base this topic on the domestic and foreign research frontier, in order to avoid the shortcomings of the existing literature. Secondly, it briefly describes the current operating status of transportation industry, defines the identity of different taxpayers, and on the basis of explaining the relevant tax theory and performance evaluation system, From the four aspects of reflecting the comprehensive ability of enterprises, we find out which financial indicators the policies have on the tax burden and performance of enterprises. The empirical study selected 58 transportation companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen as samples. The panel data of enterprises from 2010 to 2016 are collected, and the DID model is established to consider the effect of camp transformation. The net effect of the policy on the enterprise is obtained by two differences. The conclusion is that the expected lag effect exists. The influence of camp reform on enterprises is the most obvious in the early years of reform, showing negative effect, and then getting better year by year. Finally, the concrete countermeasures are put forward in view of the problems faced in the process of camp reform and increase.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F512.6;F506.7

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