基于LEAP和综合集成赋权的城市低碳交通政策选择方法

发布时间：2018-03-19 05:11

本文选题：交通工程　切入点：城市低碳交通　出处：《中国公路学报》2014年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为提高城市低碳交通政策选择的准确性,运用灰色关联和主成分分析相结合的综合集成赋权法,筛选低碳交通情景政策的指标集,设计4种情景政策,选择长期能源可替代规划(LEAP)系统模型进行不同情景政策的低碳交通政策效果测度计算。结果表明:公交发展政策和新能源发展政策对城市交通碳排放影响的重要度最高;采取低碳交通政策能显著控制碳排放,公交与新能源共同发展政策的效果最好,新能源发展政策效果略好于公交发展政策;碳排放量、碳排放强度、减排贡献率三方面的计算结论具有很强的一致性,说明该方法可信度高,能为决策部门选择中长期的城市低碳交通政策提供客观、定量、可行的方法参考。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the accuracy of urban low-carbon transportation policy selection, the comprehensive integrated weighting method combined with grey correlation and principal component analysis was used to select the index set of low-carbon traffic scenario policy, and four scenarios policies were designed. The long-term energy alternative planning (Lepp) system model is used to measure the effect of low-carbon transport policies in different scenarios. The results show that the impact of public transport development policy and new energy development policy on urban transport carbon emissions is the most important. Low-carbon transport policy can significantly control carbon emissions, public transport and new energy development policy has the best effect, new energy development policy slightly better than the public transport development policy, carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, The conclusion of the three aspects of emission reduction contribution rate is very consistent, which shows that the method has high credibility and can provide objective, quantitative and feasible method reference for decision-making departments to select long-term urban low-carbon transport policy.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(11YJA630155) 西安市社会科学规划基金项目(12J76) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2013G6231001,2013G6232010)
【分类号】：X322;F572

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