交通运输业碳排放脱钩效应及其脱钩路径分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 04:20

本文选题：交通运输业碳排放　切入点：脱钩效应　出处：《长安大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交通运输业已被表明是我国主要的碳排放行业,在如今的碳减排背景下,保证经济稳定增长的同时发展低碳交通已成为整个社会经济发展的必然要求。因此,对交通运输业碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系及其脱钩路径进行探究对于构建与社会经济协调发展的低碳交通运输体系具有很大的理论及实际应用价值。为此,本文运用IPCC推荐的“自上而下”法测算1995-2014年来我国交通运输业碳排放量,基于Tapio脱钩指数模型,构建交通运输业碳排放脱钩指数模型,并对1995-2014年交通运输业碳排放与行业经济增长之间的脱钩状态进行测度分析,进一步运用基于Kaya恒等式的LMDI因素分解法和基于STIRPAT模型的岭回归分析法,对交通运输业经济增长中的碳排放建立影响因素模型,从动静结合的角度,探究影响交通运输业碳排放与行业经济增长响应关系的深层次原因,从而明确我国交通运输业碳排放的影响因素及其动态作用机理。研究结果表明:(1)1995-2014年,交通运输业碳排放总量与行业经济增长之间呈现出三种脱钩状态,即弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩和扩张连接,整体脱钩状态较差,交通运输行业的低碳转型任重道远;(2)交通运输业碳排放影响因素的作用方式表现为对碳排放量的驱动作用和抑制作用,两者的共同作用是交通运输业碳排放量演变的诱因。其中,人均GDP和人口规模一直对交通运输业碳排放表现为促进作用,前者的促进作用更明显。交通运输能源消费结构一直对行业碳排放表现为抑制作用,运输强度和能源强度整体上表现为抑制作用;(3)人口规模、能源强度、运输强度、人均GDP是交通运输业碳排放增长的重要驱动力,能源结构的优化是交通运输业碳排放增长的重要抑制力。具体而言,人口规模、能源强度运输强度、人均GDP分别每增长1%,交通运输业碳排放量分别增长0.49%、0.39%;0.48%、5.51%;能源结构每优化1%,交通运输业碳排放量减少0.54%。最后,为实现交通运输业碳排放与行业经济增长之间真正“脱钩”,本文从加强交通需求管理、优化交通运输能耗结构、降低能源强度和运输强度等核心出发,对未来我国交通运输业碳排放脱钩路径的设定提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Transportation industry has been proved to be the main carbon emission industry in China. Under the background of carbon emission reduction, it has become an inevitable requirement for the development of the whole society and economy to ensure the steady growth of economy and develop low-carbon transportation at the same time. It is of great theoretical and practical value to explore the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of transportation industry and its decoupling path for the construction of low-carbon transportation system with coordinated development of society and economy. In this paper, the "top-down" method recommended by IPCC is used to estimate the carbon emissions of transportation industry in China from 1995 to 2014. Based on the Tapio decoupling index model, a decoupling index model of transportation carbon emissions is constructed. The paper measures and analyzes the decoupling state between the carbon emissions of transportation industry and the economic growth of the industry from 1995 to 2014, and further uses the LMDI factorization method based on Kaya identity and the ridge regression analysis method based on STIRPAT model. This paper establishes a model of influencing factors of carbon emissions in the economic growth of transportation industry. From the angle of dynamic and dynamic combination, it probes into the deep reasons that affect the relationship between carbon emissions of transportation industry and the response of industry economic growth. The research results show that there are three kinds of decoupling states between the total carbon emissions of transportation industry and the economic growth of the industry from 1995 to 2014, that is, weak decoupling. Expansion negative decoupling and expansion connection, the overall decoupling state is poor, and the low carbon transformation of transportation industry has a heavy responsibility. (2) the influencing factors of carbon emissions in transportation industry are the driving and restraining effects of carbon emissions. The co-action of the two factors is the inducement of carbon emissions evolution in transportation industry. Among them, the per capita GDP and population size have been promoting the carbon emissions of transportation industry. The effect of the former is more obvious. The consumption structure of transportation energy has been shown as a restraining effect on the carbon emissions of the industry, and the transport intensity and energy intensity as a whole have been shown as restraining effects on population scale, energy intensity and transport intensity. GDP per capita is an important driving force for carbon emission growth in transportation industry, and the optimization of energy structure is an important restraining force for carbon emission growth in transportation industry. In particular, population size, energy intensity and transport intensity, For each increase of GDP per capita, the carbon emissions of the transportation industry will increase by 0.490.390.390.480.48 and 5.51. for every energy structure optimization, the carbon emissions of the transportation industry will be reduced by 0.54. finally, In order to realize the real "decoupling" between the carbon emissions of transportation industry and the economic growth of the industry, this paper starts from the core of strengthening traffic demand management, optimizing the structure of transportation energy consumption, reducing energy intensity and transportation intensity, etc. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the setting of decoupling path of carbon emissions from transportation industry in China in the future.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512;X73

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