城市客运交通能耗排放的动态模型与方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 03:12

本文选题：城市客运　切入点：能源消耗　出处：《北京化工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：如今,治理“大城市病”已经上升为国家战略。其中,城市交通又因其对城市居民生活带来的拥堵、能耗、污染问题,成为社会各界迫切希望改善的焦点。政府和学术界以解决交通拥堵为重点设计了诸多方案。然而,由于社会热点的转移,除了交通拥堵问题之外,耗能带来的污染问题近期也被频繁提及。现有的方案因缺乏结构性数据和动态政策模拟系统,无法针对能耗污染问题形成有针对性的政策,治理效果不明显。本研究依托北京市财政立项,在北京科学技术研究院及各学术机构配合下,为解决城市交通能耗污染问题提供了良好的框架和方案。研究中,以北京市交通数据为基础,构建了基于北京市城市能源消耗结构的动态分析模型,定量的分析社会经济发展、居民出行结构变化、政府宏观政策措施对特大型城市客运交通能耗及排放的影响。既为宏观政策的改善效果定量提供依据,同时又能够为政策情景的模拟提供了工具。在实际研究过程中,我们发现现有的统计数据无法对模型的结构性数据需求进行支撑,所以使用了结构性拆分的方法,将统计数据拆分至合理的粒度。同时为了反映路网速度对能耗的影响,我们通过SCF综合修正式,将标称能耗及排放和实际能耗及排放对接起来。研究认为：在北京市城市客运需求量逐年上升大背景下,大力发展公共交通,特别是轨道交通,限制企事业单位及私人小轿车的增长速度对于能源消耗作用显著；同时,改善客运交通能源消费结构,积极促进新能源交通工具的更新换代,对大幅降低污染物排放有着很直观的效果。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, tackling the "disease of big cities" has become a national strategy. Among them, urban traffic has brought congestion, energy consumption and pollution problems to the lives of urban residents. The government and academia have designed many solutions to solve traffic congestion. However, due to the shift of social hot spots, in addition to traffic congestion, The problem of pollution caused by energy consumption has also been frequently mentioned recently. Due to the lack of structural data and dynamic policy simulation system, existing schemes are unable to form targeted policies on energy consumption pollution. The research, supported by the Beijing Institute of Science and Technology and the cooperation of various academic institutions, provides a good framework and scheme for solving the problem of urban traffic energy consumption pollution. Based on the traffic data of Beijing, a dynamic analysis model based on the urban energy consumption structure in Beijing is constructed to quantitatively analyze the social and economic development and the changes of the residents' travel structure. The influence of government macro policy measures on energy consumption and emission of passenger transport in super large cities. It not only provides quantitative basis for the improvement effect of macro policy, but also provides a tool for simulation of policy scenarios. We find that the existing statistical data can not support the structural data demand of the model, so we use the structural split method to split the statistical data to a reasonable granularity, and to reflect the impact of road network speed on energy consumption. Through the comprehensive revision of SCF, we connect nominal energy consumption and emission with actual energy consumption and emission. The research holds that: under the background of the increasing demand for urban passenger transport in Beijing year by year, public transport, especially rail transit, should be vigorously developed. Limiting the growth rate of enterprises, institutions and private cars plays a significant role in energy consumption; at the same time, improving the structure of energy consumption in passenger transport and actively promoting the upgrading of new energy vehicles, It has direct effect on reducing pollutant emission greatly.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F572;F206

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