佛开高速公路改扩建项目经济研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 01:02

本文选题：佛开高速　切入点：改扩建　出处：《华南理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以佛开高速改扩建为研究对象，从佛开高速所处的重要社会地位以及历史的运营情况着手分析分别从现实方面和政策方面阐明对佛开高速进行改扩建的必要性。然后对关键变量——交通量进行预测，确定改扩建规模，计算出工程的总造价。根据所需资金总额安排融资与资金使用，其中35%来源于资本金，65%来源于银行借款。本文重点对佛开高速改扩建项目带来的经济效益进行了评价，分别从财务角度和国民经济角度进行。财务评价结果显示，在两种不同的基准收益率下，本项目评价期为22年（即在高速公路扩建后原收费经营期不变的情况下）的方案项目投资及资本金投资财务内部收益率均小于设定的综合贷款利率；项目投资及资本金投资财务净现值均小于0；项目投资及资本金投资回收期均大于22年。说明本方案有较大的投资风险，在评价期内可能无法收回投资。经推算，扩建后，在收费标准不考虑提高的情况下，经营期最少要延长至2041年（即采用36年评价期），项目在财务上才有一定的抗风险能力。而国民经济评价结果显示，本项目的经济内部收益率高于社会折现率10%；经济净现值大于零，这表明该项目从国民经济角度衡量是可行的，国民经济敏感性分析得出本项目有一定的抗风险能力。简而言之，，本项目从国民经济的角度是可行的，而在高速公路改扩建后没有收费延期的政策条件设定下，从财务角度是不可行的。但由于本项目属于国家重要的基础建设项目，尽管财务上不可行，但政府从宏观上考虑，仍然纳入建设范围。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Fokai high-speed reconstruction and extension as the research object, From the important social status of Fokai Expressway and the operation of history, this paper analyzes the necessity of reconstruction and extension of Fokai Expressway from the aspect of reality and policy, and forecasts the traffic volume, which is the key variable. To determine the scale of reconstruction and expansion, calculate the total cost of the project. According to the total amount of funds required to arrange financing and use of funds, 35% of which comes from the capital of 65% from bank loans. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the economic benefits brought about by the Fokai high-speed reconstruction and expansion project, respectively from the financial angle and the national economy angle. The results of the financial evaluation show that under the two different benchmark rates of return, The evaluation period of this project is 22 years (that is, under the condition that the original toll operating period of expressway extension is unchanged), the financial internal rate of return of both project investment and capital investment is less than the set comprehensive loan interest rate; The financial net present value of both project investment and capital investment is less than 0; the payback period of project investment and capital investment is more than 22 years. If the charging standard is not considered to be raised, the operating period should be extended to 2041 at least (that is, 36 years of evaluation period is adopted, the project will have a certain financial ability to resist risks. The results of the national economic evaluation show that the economic internal rate of return of the project is higher than the social discount rate of 10 and the net present value of the economy is greater than zero, which indicates that the project is feasible from the point of view of the national economy. The sensitivity analysis of the national economy shows that this project has a certain ability to resist risks. In short, this project is feasible from the point of view of the national economy, and under the policy conditions of no extension of toll after highway reconstruction and extension, It is not feasible from a financial point of view. However, because this project is an important national infrastructure project, although it is not financially feasible, it is still included in the scope of construction from the macro perspective.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F542;F282

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