港口建设工程全过程模糊风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 01:07

本文选题：模糊影响图　切入点：模糊综合评价　出处：《郑州大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：港口建设工程投资规模大、周期长,港口建设环境具有不确定性,港口建设工程信息滞后性,港口建设工程施工复杂性以及港口建设工程潜在影响因素呈现多样化,这些都是港口建设工程风险来源。目前存在的建设项目风险评价技术,比如故障树分析、事件树分析、蒙特卡洛分析法、PERT分析技术等,大都对工程项目的某些风险因素进行识别和评价,这些方法难以有效地解决港口建设工程中不同阶段的不确定性风险因素的评价。因而,如何量化港口建设工程中产生的不确定或难以度量的风险因素,从而提供相应的评价方法是港口建设工程风险评价亟待解决的问题。本文以模糊评价方法为理论依据,借鉴国内外港口建设工程风险评价的成功实践,系统地研究了港口建设工程全过程风险因素的模糊风险评价。首先,研究了有关港口建设工程风险因素评价现状,将港口建设工程全过程划分为决策期、施工期和运营期三个不同阶段,并分析了港口建设工程不同阶段的风险因素特征。其次,针对决策期风险因素的特点,通过对政策风险、市场风险、技术风险和管理风险因素的分析,对决策期风险进行了单因素模糊风险评价。进而,利用模糊影响图方法,建立了施工期风险因素的模糊影响图模型,并提供了风险评价结果分析。接着,基于模糊综合风险评价方法,建立了运营期风险因素的多级层次结构,对运营期风险因素进行模糊综合评判。最后,提供了厦门港龙海客运站建设工程风险模糊评判的案例研究。本文研究特色和创新之处主要表现在：①利用模糊评判、模糊影响图和模糊综合评判方法,提供了决策期风险的单因素模糊风险评价、施工期风险因素的模糊影响图评价、运营期风险因素的模糊综合评价；②根据港口建设工程的生命周期理论,将港口建设工程全过程风险划分为决策期、施工期和运营期分别进行风险评价；③采用港口建设工程全过程风险模糊评价方法体系,对厦门港龙海客运站建设工程进行实证研究。本文的研究不仅为港口建设工程全过程风险因素提供了一套可操作的模糊评价方法,而且为其他建设工程提供了理论分析依据和实施途径。
[Abstract]:The investment of port construction project is large, the period is long, the environment of port construction is uncertain, the information of port construction project is lagging behind, the construction complexity of port construction project and the potential influencing factors of port construction project are diversified. These are the risk sources of port construction projects. The existing risk assessment techniques for construction projects, such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, Monte Carlo analysis and Pert analysis, etc. Most of the risk factors of engineering projects are identified and evaluated. These methods are difficult to effectively solve the evaluation of uncertain risk factors in different stages of port construction projects. How to quantify the uncertain or difficult to measure the risk factors in the port construction project, so as to provide the corresponding evaluation method is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the theory of fuzzy evaluation method and the successful practice of risk assessment of port construction engineering at home and abroad, this paper systematically studies the fuzzy risk assessment of risk factors in the whole process of port construction engineering. This paper studies the present situation of risk factors evaluation of port construction engineering, divides the whole process of port construction engineering into three different stages: decision-making period, construction period and operation period, and analyzes the characteristics of risk factors in different stages of port construction engineering. According to the characteristics of the risk factors in the decision-making period, through the analysis of the policy risk, the market risk, the technical risk and the management risk factor, the single factor fuzzy risk evaluation of the decision-making period risk is carried out. The fuzzy influence graph model of risk factors during construction period is established, and the analysis of risk evaluation results is provided. Then, based on the fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation method, the multilevel hierarchical structure of risk factors in operation period is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk factors in operation period is carried out. Finally, a case study on fuzzy evaluation of risk in construction project of Longhai passenger Station in Xiamen Port is provided. In this paper, the main research features and innovations are as follows: by using fuzzy judgment, fuzzy influence map and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper provides a single factor fuzzy risk evaluation for decision-making period risk, and a fuzzy influence chart evaluation for construction period risk factor. According to the life cycle theory of port construction project, the risk in the whole process of port construction project is divided into decision-making period. Risk assessment during construction period and operation period respectively adopts the fuzzy evaluation method system of risk in the whole process of port construction project. An empirical study on the construction of Longhai passenger Station in Xiamen Port is carried out. The research in this paper not only provides a set of operational fuzzy evaluation methods for the risk factors in the whole process of the port construction project. It also provides theoretical analysis basis and implementation approach for other construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

【引证文献】