我国高速铁路“走出去”的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 15:07

本文选题：高铁走出去　切入点：风险管理　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着经济全球化的不断深入发展,实施"走出去"战略并参与国际资源重新配置已成为各国振兴经济的一大重要举措,也是各国发展的必然趋势。在此经济背景下,我国高速铁路经过引进、吸收、创新、再创造的过程,以震惊世界的速度跻身世界高铁强国行列。自2009年我国提出高速铁路"走出去"发展战略之后,国家领导人曾多次在海外宣传及推介我国的高速铁路,"中国高铁"已然成为我国响亮的"国家名片",大力发展高铁,实施高铁"走出去"更是成为了我国的国家战略。但是近年来,我国高速铁路"走出去"的道路并不顺利,多个项目由于多种风险因素以失败告终,我国政府及相关高铁企业遭受了重大损失,因此,风险管理研究将是我国高速铁路"走出去"战略实施过程中的第一要务。基于此,本文以完整的风险管理研究体系为框架,以"走出去"理论、对外投资理论及风险管理理论为基础,结合高铁"走出去"重点案例及文献综述并通过焦点人群法及问卷调查法筛选风险指标,然后采用因子分析法建立起我国高速铁路"走出去"的风险因素评价体系。接着本文以"莫斯科-喀山"项目为案例采用基于AHP的模糊综合评价法进行实证分析,继而提出我国高速铁路"走出去"的风险控制思路及对策分析。本文的研究结论如下:(1)从2005年我国中标安伊高铁至今,我国高速铁路"走出去"的项目已有9个左右(本文以至少中标项目或签署合作协议为时间节点的公开信息为准),其中只有1条建成通车、1条签署合作协议、1条处在勘查设计阶段、1条开工建设、1条预计明年完工但已形成巨亏局面、4条以失败告终,可以说目前我国高铁"走出去"成功率为11.11%,而失败率高达55.56%,究其原因无不是因为前期对风险管理研究不深而造成,因此,进行严密的风险管理研究是极其重要的。(2)我国高速铁路不同于其它产业,在其"走出去"过程中有其特殊的风险因素,最主要的因素如下:一是受国家政策影响较大;二是高速铁路投资金额大且投资期限长,将面临诸多潜在性风险;三是高铁"走出去"是一个系统性工程,涉及到母国及东道国包括政府在内的多方机构及公司,涉及到诸多产业等关联资源,因此风险因素庞杂。(3)利用基于AHP的模糊综合评价法对"莫斯科-喀山"高铁进行实证分析后发现,政治风险在所有风险中排名最高,超出第二名0.11,利用该方法对其他两个项目进行分析同样得到这个结论,因此对政治风险应予以绝对高度重视,同时财务风险、管理风险、经济风险得分同样很高,应予以足够重视。(4)经过案例分析及实证研究可以发现,虽然政治因素在我国高速铁路"走出去"过程中的风险程度最大,但几乎每个项目都有其不同的风险表现,阻碍项目进程甚至导致项目亏损或失败,因此在对该项目进行前期风险管理研究时,在保证重点风险重点防范的同时,一定要最为全面地对风险因素进行分析,防患于未然,只有这样,我国才能最大可能性地避免国家资源浪费。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of economic globalization, the implementation of the strategy of "going out" and participate in international reallocation of resources has become an important measure of national revitalization of the economy, is the inevitable trend of the development of all countries. In this economic context, China's high-speed railway through the introduction, absorption, innovation, the process of re creation, to shocked the world ranks among the world's high speed rail power. Since 2009, China has proposed high-speed railway development strategy of "going out", state leaders have repeatedly in overseas publicity and promotion of China's high-speed railway, "Chinese high iron" has become a "national name card" in our country, developing high-speed, high iron "going out" has become a national strategy in China. But in recent years, China's high-speed railway "going out" the road is not smooth, a number of projects due to various risk factors in failure, our government and relevant high iron Companies suffered a major loss, therefore, the research on risk management of high-speed railway will be the first priority of "going out" strategy in China in the process of implementation. Based on this, this paper research on the risk management of the complete system framework, in order to "go out" theory, foreign investment theory and risk management theory, combined with high speed "go out and focus on literature review case and through focus group and questionnaire survey were risk indicators, and then using the factor analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high speed railway in China" risk factors going out. Then the paper takes "the Moscow Kazan project as a case by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for empirical analysis based on AHP and then put forward the ideas and Countermeasures of risk control of high-speed railway in China" go out ". The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) from the 2005 China's bid to the Anyi high-speed rail, high-speed railway in China" go out " The project has 9 or so (taking at least the winning project or signed a cooperation agreement for public information time shall prevail), of which only 1 completed, 1 signed a cooperation agreement, the 1 in the survey design stage, 1 under construction, 1 is expected to be completed next year but have formed a huge loss situation, to 4 failed, it can be said that the current high-speed rail in China "go out" the success rate was 11.11%, and the failure rate is as high as 55.56%, the reason is because the early stage of risk management research is not deep and caused, therefore, the risk management of tight is extremely important. (2) high speed railway in China in other industries, has its special risk factors in the "going out" process, the main factors are as follows: one is influenced by national policies; two high-speed railway is a large amount of investment and long investment period, will face many potential risks; three is the high-speed rail going out" Is a systematic project, many agencies involved in home and host countries including the government and companies involved in many industries and other related resources, so the complex risk factors. (3) the use of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the "Moscow Kazan" high iron empirical analysis found that based on the highest political risk ranking at all risks, more than second 0.11, the other two projects were analyzed also came to this conclusion by using this method, so the political risks should be absolutely also attaches great importance to the financial risk, management risk, economic risk score is very high, we should pay enough attention to. (4) through the analysis and empirical study can be found, although the risk degree of political factors in the high speed railway in China "go out" in the process of the biggest, but almost every project has its different risk, hinder the project process and even lead to loss in the project Or failure. Therefore, in the early stage risk management research of the project, we must analyze the risk factors and prevent them at the same time, so that we can avoid the waste of national resources to the greatest extent.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532.6;F125

【参考文献】