铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 01:14

本文选题：铁路现代物流中心　切入点：货运量预测　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国供给侧结构性改革的不断深化和运输市场竞争的日益加剧,铁路货物运输迫切需要调整服务功能、提升服务水平。而铁路现代物流中心作为铁路货物运输网络的重要组成部分,能够在充分借助既有场站设施设备进行货物流通加工作业的基础上,运用铁路运输能力加快货物周转运输。铁路总公司十分重视铁路现代物流中心的规划建设,并于2015年8月出台《铁路物流基地布局规划及2015～2017年建设计划》(铁总计统[2015]232号)。因此,合理地规划设计铁路现代物流中心对发挥铁路运输优势、提升物流系统运作效率具有重要意义。本文在大量查阅国内外有关铁路现代物流中心研究文献的基础上,采用理论研究与实地调研相结合的方法,从以下四个方面对铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划问题展开了研究:(1)对铁路现代物流中心的基本概念进行了阐述并对其类型进行了划分,在分析铁路现代物流中心的功能设置、常运货物品类、功能区划分以及基本业务流程的基础上,提出了铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划的基本思路。(2)对铁路现代物流中心货运量预测的基本步骤进行了阐述,描述了铁路现代物流中心的吸引范围,并设计了基于灰色关联度分析的区域铁路货运量影响因素指标选取方法和基于IOWA算子的区域铁路货运量组合预测模型。在进行铁路现代物流中心货运量预测时首先采用灰色关联度分析方法对初选的影响因素指标进行关联度分析,并选取关联度较强的影响因素指标作为预测模型的影响因素指标;其次采用灰色预测GM(1,1)对设计年度区域铁路货运量的影响因素指标进行预测,采用灰色预测GM(1,h)、多元线性回归预测以及BP神经网络预测三种方法对设计年度区域铁路货运量进行预测,然后采用IOWA算子通过精度计算并排序将三种预测方法组合起来对设计年度区域铁路货运量进行预测;最后描述了铁路现代物流中心承担区域铁路货运量的估算方法。(3)对铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划问题进行了研究,给出了不同功能区面积的计算方法,在研究现有功能区布局规划方法的基础上,结合铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划要求提出了铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划的改进SLP方法。在进行铁路现代物流中心功能区布局规划时首先将铁路现代物流中心的到发场、调车场、出入口以及规划区域外界的影响因素等均假设为功能区:其次分析并量化各功能区之间的物流相关性和细化的非物流相关性;然后以物流中心内外部货物搬运总成本最小、各功能区之间的综合相关性系数之和最大以及物流中心土地利用率最高为目标建立铁路现代物流中心功能区布局多目标优化模型,并设计了遗传算法求解模型的基本步骤;最后描述了最优功能区布局方案应用于实际工程的调整过程。(4)利用本文提出的理论和方法,在对西安新筑铁路现代物流中心规划设计问题进行实地调研的基础上,对其功能区布局规划问题进行实证研究,验证了本文理论研究的可行性。
[Abstract]:With China's supply side structural reforms continue to deepen and transport the aggravation of the market competition, it is urgent to adjust the railway freight transportation service function, improve the service level. And the railway modern logistics center as an important part of railway transportation network, can be in full with both base station facilities and equipment for processing the flow of goods the use of the railway transport capacity, speed up the turnover of goods transport. The railway company attaches great importance to the planning and construction of railway logistics center, and the introduction of "railway logistics base layout and construction plan for 2015~2017 years in August 2015 (total iron series No. [2015]232). Therefore, rational planning and design of railway modern logistics center to play the advantages of rail transport, has an important significance to improve the operational efficiency of the logistics system. Based on a great number of domestic and foreign related research paper of railway modern logistics center Offer the basis, using the methods of theoretical research and empirical research, launched the study of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning problem from the following four aspects: (1) elaborates the basic concept of the modern railway logistics center and its types were classified and arranged in the analysis of railway modern logistics center the function of ordinary goods category, basic function division and basic business process, puts forward the basic ideas of modern railway logistics center function area layout planning. (2) the basic steps to forecast freight volume of railway modern logistics center are described, describes the rail logistics center attracting scope, and design the regional railway freight volume based on Grey Relational analysis of influence factor selection method and regional railway freight volume forecasting model based on the combination of IOWA operators. In Modern Railway Logistics Grey correlation analysis of influencing factors on primary method of correlation analysis the freight volume forecasting center, and select the strong correlation factors as the influencing factors of the prediction model; secondly using grey prediction GM (1,1) index of influencing factors on the design of annual regional railway freight volume forecasting by grey prediction of GM (1, H), multiple linear regression and BP neural network prediction method to predict the three annual regional design of railway freight volume, and then use the IOWA operator by calculating precision and sorting the three kinds of prediction method are combined to predict the annual regional design of railway freight volume; calculation method of railway modern logistics center bear the regional railway freight volume finally described. (3) of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning problem is discussed and given different function areas Area calculation method, based on the existing functional areas layout planning methods, combining with the modern railway logistics center function area layout planning requirements this paper proposes an improved SLP method of railway modern logistics center function area layout planning. In the functional areas layout planning of railway modern logistics center will be the first railway modern logistics center to field. Yard entrance as well as the impact of Regional Planning outside factors are assumed to be functional areas: second analysis and non logistics correlation between each functional area of logistics and refinement of the quantitative correlation; and then to the logistics center and cargo handling to minimize total cost, the comprehensive correlation coefficient between each functional zone and the largest land and logistics center the highest utilization rate is established for the purpose of railway modern logistics center function area layout multi-objective optimization model, and designed a genetic algorithm to solve the model The basic steps; and finally describes the adjustment process of optimal function area layout scheme applied to the practical engineering. (4) by using the theory and method proposed in this paper, based on the Xi'an new construction planning and design of railway modern logistics center of the field of research, the empirical research on the functional areas layout planning problem, verify the theory the feasibility of the research.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU984.13;F259.2;F532

【参考文献】