大北极石油运输通道格局及演化研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 23:27

本文选题：北极 + 大北极　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为推动国家平稳发展、维护本国经济安全和军事安全的基本保障,石油问题受到了世界各国的普遍重视。长久以来,石油资源一直是各国激烈争夺的战略资源,经济的发展离不开充足的石油供应。国家经济的可持续发展离不开稳定的石油供应,石油问题因此一直受到了广泛的重视。本文首先介绍了大北极的概念,并着重分析了大北极区域目前的石油运输通道格局。然后在考虑到北极航线的通航、北极石油资源开发、政治等因素情况下,采用因子分析法对未来的石油运输通道格局演变进行了预测。根据结果,俄罗斯、美国、加拿大等石油资源丰富的北极国家在石油贸易中的地位将会上升,大北极国家对中东的石油依赖性会下降,大北极地区将成为新的石油中心。进而,对北极通道的吸引力进行探讨,得到北极通道影响下中国石油进口通道格局的变化趋势,即北极通道将成为中国石油进口通道之一,并分担7.06%的石油进口运输量。由此提出的面向北极通道中国应采取的相关战略措施,有利于中国尽早适应石油进口通道格局的发展变化,确保未来石油的安全供应。从结果上来看,在北极航线的通航及北极资源开发之前,大北极区域整体对中东石油依赖性较大,从苏伊士运河、马六甲海峡等传统航线进口的石油占了极大比重;而随着北极航线带来的冲击,大北极国家拥有更多选择,对中东市场的依赖度下降,中东的市场份额减少,一直以来因航线依赖而受到制约的紧张也缓解了。同时,美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、挪威在石油贸易中的地位上升,尤其是俄罗斯,丰富的石油资源使其将会是许多欧亚大陆国家的主要进口对象。然而,俄罗斯当局虽欲开采,但态度保守坚定,坚持主张主权,不愿其他国家参与。因此,对我国而言,最好的方式是通过提供尖端技术等方式,在尊重主权的前提下提出合作模式,积极参与,建立平和稳定的石油贸易关系。
[Abstract]:As a basic guarantee to promote the smooth development of our country and safeguard its economic and military security, the oil problem has been paid much attention by all countries in the world. For a long time, petroleum resources have been the strategic resources for fierce competition in various countries, and economic development can not be separated from sufficient oil supply. The sustainable development of national economy can not be separated from stable oil supply. In this paper, the concept of the Great Arctic is introduced, and the current oil transportation channel pattern in the Great Arctic region is analyzed. Then, considering the navigation of Arctic route, the exploitation of Arctic oil resources and politics, the evolution of petroleum transportation channel pattern in the future is forecasted by factor analysis method. As a result, the oil-rich Arctic countries, such as Russia, the United States and Canada, will become more important in the oil trade, the greater Arctic countries will become less dependent on the Middle East, and the Great Arctic will become a new oil center. Furthermore, the attraction of the Arctic Corridor is discussed, and the changing trend of the pattern of China's petroleum import channel under the influence of the Arctic Channel is obtained, that is, the Arctic Corridor will become one of China's petroleum import channels and share 7.06% of the oil import volume. The strategic measures that China should take towards the Arctic Corridor will be helpful for China to adapt to the development and change of the petroleum import channel as soon as possible and to ensure the safe supply of oil in the future. From the result, before the navigation of the Arctic route and the exploitation of the Arctic resources, the Great Arctic region as a whole depended heavily on the Middle East oil, and the oil imported from the traditional routes such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca occupied a great proportion. With the impact of the Arctic route, greater Arctic countries have more options, less dependence on the Middle East market, less market share in the Middle East, and less tension that has been constrained by airline dependence. At the same time, the United States, Russia, Canada and Norway have increased their position in the oil trade, especially Russia, which will be the main importer of many Eurasian countries because of its abundant oil resources. However, the Russian authorities want to exploit, but conservative attitude, insist on sovereignty, do not want to participate in other countries. Therefore, for our country, the best way is to establish peaceful and stable oil trade relations by providing cutting-edge technology, under the premise of respecting sovereignty, putting forward the cooperation model, participating actively and establishing peaceful and stable oil trade relations.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F551;F416.22

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