集装箱远期运价期货的价格发现功能研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 17:11

本文选题：远期运费协议 + 运价波动　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际航运已经发展了数百年。20世纪中期，集装箱投入远洋运输，促进了航运业的发展并提高了效率、降低了航运成本。金融危机以来，以及供需关系、经济贸易、政治和自然环境等因素的影响，集装箱运输价格波动异常巨大。为了避免集装箱运价波动的风险，，上海推出了上海出口集装箱远期运价合约。使得集装箱班轮运营公司，货主与代理商，金融机构等能参与到集装箱运价市场。本文选取上海出口集装箱远期运价合约中较为典型的欧洲基本港远期运价协议，应用计量经济学的方法，研究远期运价协议的价格发现功能。结合集装箱运输市场的特殊状况，分析了即期与远期运价的影响因素，以远期价格和即期价格为共同参考对象，分析了远期价格和即期价格之间的引导关系，可知：欧线基本港远期运价协议中，远期价格对即期价格有较强的价格发现功能。此价格发现功能会对原本封闭的集装箱运输市场带来新的机遇。
[Abstract]:International shipping has been developed for hundreds of years in the middle of the.20 century. Container transportation has been put into ocean transportation, which has promoted the development of the shipping industry and improved the efficiency and reduced the cost of shipping. Since the financial crisis and the influence of supply and demand, economy, trade, politics and natural environment, the price fluctuation of container transportation is very huge. The risk of price fluctuation in the case, Shanghai launched the Shanghai export container forward price contract, which enables the container liner operators, the cargo owners and the agents, and the financial institutions to participate in the container freight market.
This paper selects the typical European basic port forward price agreement in the Shanghai export container forward price contract, and studies the price discovery function of the forward price agreement by means of econometrics. Combined with the special situation of the container transportation market, the factors that affect the immediate and forward price are analyzed, with the forward price and the immediate price. For the common reference object, the guidance relationship between forward price and spot price is analyzed. It is known that forward price has a strong price discovery function to spot price in the forward price agreement of the European basic port, which will bring new opportunities to the originally closed container transportation market.

【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F724.5

【参考文献】