高速铁路对客运交通结构影响的SD模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 22:02

本文选题：高速铁路 + 交通结构　；参考：《北京交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：沪杭高速铁路2010年正式通车,我国高速铁路营业里程达7431公里,居世界第一。高速铁路建设及运营稳步推进使得高速铁路逐渐成为我国铁路客运网络骨架。高速铁路建设运营会对客运交通结构带来影响,在新的市场环境下,民航、公路、高速铁路及普通铁路等交通方式,如何更好的发挥自身优势,向合理可持续的方向发展,是需要研究的问题。本论文通过建立高速铁路对客运交通结构影响的系统动力学模型,进行综合客运交通结构演化趋势研究。充分利用系统动力学“政策模拟实验室”的特点,进行政策情景仿真,分析交通结构变化趋势及政策改变对交通结构影响。本论文主要研究如下：高速铁路建设运营对通道客运交通结构影响,在客运需求分析中充分考虑交通工具技术经济特性和旅客自身特性,分析了旅客个人出行选择行为影响因素,以不同收入群体、不同出行目的分析旅客不同层次的客运需求。在系统影响因素及系统结构分析的基础上,建立了高速铁路对客运交通结构影响的系统动力学模型。论文以武广通道为例,应用系统动力学的Vensim软件,仿真分析了武广高铁对通道客运交通结构产生的影响,并对票价、速度及GDP增长速度等政策因素,构造不同的情景方案进行仿真,得出了不同交通方式的客运分担率、客运量及其构成的变化趋势。为分析高速铁路的客运量构成及对客运交通结构的影响分析,提供了参考依据。
[Abstract]:Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway was officially opened in 2010, and the operating mileage of high-speed railway in China is 7431 kilometers, ranking first in the world. The construction and operation of high-speed railway make high-speed railway gradually become the skeleton of railway passenger network in our country. The construction and operation of high-speed railway will have an impact on the passenger transport structure. In the new market environment, how to develop the traffic modes such as civil aviation, highway, high-speed railway and ordinary railway better, and develop to a reasonable and sustainable direction. It is a problem that needs to be studied. In this paper, the system dynamics model of the influence of high speed railway on passenger traffic structure is established to study the evolution trend of integrated passenger traffic structure. Making full use of the characteristics of "policy simulation laboratory" in system dynamics, the policy scenario simulation is carried out, and the trend of traffic structure change and the influence of policy change on traffic structure are analyzed. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: The influence of high-speed railway construction and operation on passenger transport structure is analyzed. In the analysis of passenger transport demand, the technical and economic characteristics of transportation and passenger's own characteristics are fully considered, and the influencing factors of passenger's individual travel choice behavior are analyzed, and different income groups are taken into account. Analysis of passenger demand at different levels for different travel purposes. Based on the analysis of system influence factors and system structure, the system dynamics model of the influence of high speed railway on passenger traffic structure is established. This paper takes Wuguang corridor as an example, applies the Vensim software of system dynamics, simulates and analyzes the influence of Wuguang high-speed railway on the passenger traffic structure of the passageway, and the policy factors such as ticket price, speed and GDP growth rate, etc. Different scenarios are constructed for simulation, and the passenger share rate, passenger volume and its composition of different traffic modes are obtained. This paper provides a reference for analyzing the composition of passenger volume and the influence on passenger traffic structure of high speed railway.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F532;U293

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