基于航班延误的民航安全风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 01:31

本文选题：航班延误 + 民航安全　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：航班延误是民航持续快速发展过程中的必然现象，它不仅影响民航的服务质量和经济效益，而且严重威胁着民航系统的安全，已经引起社会公众的高度关注。基于航班延误的民航安全风险管理研究，是将航班延误和民航安全这两个困扰民航业健康发展又相互关联的主要矛盾有机结合起来，运用相关风险管理技术，分析航班延误对民航安全的影响，识别出航班延误诱发的民航安全风险因素，构建基于航班延误的安全管理指标体系，并进行综合评价。对航班延误相关知识、风险管理理论及相关风险分析方法的综述，为进一步研究奠定了理论基础。探讨航班延误与民航安全风险的因果关系及其对民航安全系统的影响，继而剖析航班延误诱发民航安全风险的机理，为将两者在一个理论框架下进行研究提供了可行性。以机场子系统为例，，分别从基于航班延误的民航安全风险产生的机理及人员、设备、环境和管理四个方面的因素出发，筛选得到航班延误后机场子系统的民航安全风险评价指标，构建出相应的指标体系。采用BP人工神经网络对基于航班延误的机场子系统民航安全风险进行单指标评价。鉴于体系中很多指标无法用数值进行量化，采用模糊层次分析法对这种模糊性现象进行描述、分析和处理，综合评价“人的因素”。并与未发生航班延误时机场子系统民航安全风险综合评价进行对比分析。鉴于航班延误诱发的民航安全风险之间复杂的因果关系，以及贝叶斯网络方法具有表达不确定性、进行不确定性推理和处理复杂因果关系的优点，本文构建了基于贝叶斯网络的机场子系统民航安全风险评价模型，有效地集结专家的知识和经验，获取安全风险发生的概率，使评价结果更加客观、科学和合理。本文是以机场子系统的民航安全为基础进行研究的，相关研究成果和方法可以经过适当的扩展改进应用到空管、飞行和机务子系统中。这就为基于航班延误的民航安全风险管理提供了可操作的建议和方法，有利于提高民航相关部门的风险管理意识和风险管理能力，减少或避免由航班延误造成的安全隐患和损失，从而提高民航安全的整体性水平。
[Abstract]:Flight delay is an inevitable phenomenon in the continuous and rapid development of civil aviation. It not only affects the service quality and economic benefits of civil aviation, but also seriously threatens the safety of civil aviation system. The research of civil aviation security risk management based on flight delay is to combine flight delay and civil aviation safety, which are the two main contradictions that haunt the healthy development of the civil aviation industry and are interrelated with each other, and apply the relevant risk management technology. This paper analyzes the impact of flight delay on civil aviation safety, identifies the civil aviation safety risk factors induced by flight delay, constructs a safety management index system based on flight delay, and makes a comprehensive evaluation. The summary of flight delay related knowledge, risk management theory and related risk analysis methods lay a theoretical foundation for further research. This paper discusses the causal relationship between flight delay and civil aviation security risk and its influence on civil aviation security system, then analyzes the mechanism of flight delay inducing civil aviation security risk, which provides the feasibility for the study of both of them under a theoretical framework. Taking the airport subsystem as an example, starting from four aspects of the mechanism and personnel, equipment, environment and management of civil aviation security risk based on flight delay, The evaluation index of civil aviation security risk of airport subsystem after flight delay is obtained, and the corresponding index system is constructed. BP artificial neural network is used to evaluate the civil aviation security risk of airport subsystem based on flight delay. In view of the fact that many indexes in the system can not be quantified by numerical value, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is used to describe, analyze and deal with the fuzzy phenomenon, and comprehensively evaluate the "human factor". And compared with the comprehensive evaluation of civil aviation security risk of airport subsystem without flight delay. In view of the complex causal relationship between civil aviation security risks caused by flight delay, and the advantages of Bayesian network method in expressing uncertainty, inferring uncertainty and dealing with complex causality, In this paper, an airport subsystem civil aviation security risk evaluation model based on Bayesian network is constructed, which effectively aggregates the knowledge and experience of experts, obtains the probability of security risk, and makes the evaluation result more objective, scientific and reasonable. This paper is based on the civil aviation safety of the airport subsystem. The related research results and methods can be extended and improved to the air traffic control, flight and flight subsystems. This provides operational advice and methods for civil aviation security risk management based on flight delay, and is conducive to enhancing the risk management awareness and capability of civil aviation related departments. Reduce or avoid the hidden danger and loss caused by flight delay, thus improve the overall level of civil aviation safety.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：V328;F562

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