机场投资效益分析及风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 20:46

本文选题：机场投资 + 风险管理　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：政府在投入大量资金建设机场时，不仅仅要把投资收益是否高于成本作为衡量指标，还要更多考虑的是机场所能带动的社会效益，科学而客观地分析我国机场的社会效益，有利于政府和相关部门制定科学的发展规划，从而促进航空运输业的发展。同时，有投资就会存在风险，机场一般具有投入资金巨大、规模大、周期长、涉及面广、不确定性因素多、易受外界环境条件影响等特点，因此，对机场投资风险的评价则显得十分重要。机场的社会效益分析方面，本文对国家统计局颁布的《2007年中国投入产出表》进行调整，运用投入产出法测算机场直接经济效益和间接经济效益，并以上海机场为例进行计算。计算结果表明，在机场所带来的效益中，属于航空运输企业的只有一小部分，更大的比重体现在其对相关产业的推动作用上。机场投资的风险管理方面，，本文运用WBS-RBS法较为全面地对机场投资建设过程进行了风险识别，并给出了项目风险因素表；本文建立了机场投资的评价体系，在确定权重方面，运用了物元分析法与AHP法相结合的方式，并对结果进行了KENDALL检验，两种方法的结合可以有效地避免单种方法带来的不足，权重结果确定后运用灰色多层次法进行综合评价，从而得出综合评价值，衡阳机场的例证表明，本方法切实可行；最后，本文针对项目风险因素表，分别提出了风险的优先承担者以及风险应对基本策略，并重点介绍了融资模式多元化这一风险分散措施，本文建议将机场设施按不同的属性及盈利能力进行拆分，对不同的部分采取不同的融资模式，这种方式可有效地分散机场投资的风险。
[Abstract]:When the government invests a large amount of funds to build an airport, it should not only take whether the investment income is higher than the cost as a measure, but also consider more the social benefits that the airport can bring, and scientifically and objectively analyze the social benefits of the airports in our country. It is helpful for the government and related departments to formulate scientific development plan, thus promoting the development of air transport industry. At the same time, if there is investment, there will be risks. Airports generally have the characteristics of huge investment, large scale, long period, wide coverage, many uncertain factors, and easy to be influenced by external environmental conditions. The evaluation of airport investment risk is very important. In terms of social benefit analysis of airports, this paper adjusts the 2007 input-output table issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, calculates the direct and indirect economic benefits of airports by input-output method, and takes Shanghai Airport as an example. The results show that only a small part of the benefits brought by the airport belongs to the air transport enterprises, and the greater proportion is reflected in the promotion of the related industries. In the aspect of risk management of airport investment, this paper uses WBS-RBS method to identify the risk of airport investment construction process, and gives the project risk factor table, establishes the evaluation system of airport investment, and determines the weight of airport investment. The method of combining matter-element analysis with AHP method is used, and the results are tested by KENDALL. The combination of the two methods can effectively avoid the shortcomings brought by single method. After the weight result is determined, the grey multi-level method is used for comprehensive evaluation. The comprehensive evaluation value and the example of Hengyang Airport show that this method is feasible. Finally, this paper puts forward the priority bearer of risk and the basic strategy to deal with the risk according to the risk factor table of the project. This paper mainly introduces the risk diversification measures of financing mode diversification, and proposes to split airport facilities according to different attributes and profitability, and adopt different financing modes for different parts. This approach can effectively spread the risk of airport investment.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562.1

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