城市轨道交通走廊影响范围及开发效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 11:20

本文选题：城市轨道交通 + 出行成本　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的快速发展,城市规模急剧扩大,交通问题日趋严重。城市轨道交通系统具有运量大、高效、安全等特点,其建设运营成为缓解城市拥堵的根本解决手段之一。轨道交通一方面可为城市公共交通注入新型发展活力,另一方面也为周边环境带来明显的外部效益,因此轨道交通的影响范围及程度一直是城市公交系统的重要研究课题。目前,国内轨道交通所带来的外部效益主要反馈至线路沿线土地使用权所有人,如何促使外部效益及时有效反馈至轨道交通系统,减少国家及地方政府投资压力成为亟待解决的问题之一。因此,建立定量分析模型对轨道交通影响范围及开发效益进行度量与评价,具有一定的理论价值及实际意义。论文首先从轨道交通与房地产开发效应动态反馈关系及对房地产开发刺激作用两方面,综合阐述轨道交通与房地产开发效应之间关系,明确构建轨道交通走廊对房地产开发效应影响范围模型原理；从模型参数、理论基础以及结果可信度三个角度比较分析基于可达性及出行成本的两种建模思路,在明确出行成本构成及计算方法的前提下,构建基于出行成本的轨道交通走廊对房地产开发效应影响范围模型；结合成都市地铁1号线实际数据,标定模型参数,计算1号线对房地产开发效应影响范围,并对结果进行分析。其次,根据前文研究成果发现,轨道交通车站所处位置土地性质对影响范围计算值产生较大影响,因此,本文在阐述车站分类的必要性及可行性的基础上,选用系统聚类分析方法对轨道交通车站进行分类。结合1号线各车站用地性质情况,利用最短距离法“离群车站”——海洋公园站,独立归为一类。然后将“非离群车站”利用Ward法分为三类。再次,在明确房地产价格相关理论的基础上,对房地产价格两种建模思路从模型应用、参数、理论基础以及结果可信度四个角度进行比较分析,构建基于车站分类的轨道交通对房地产价格影响模型。最后,对1号线沿线住宅小区进行实例分析。通过定性和定量分析手段,确定基于车站分类的轨道交通对房地产价格影响模型输入及输出参数；利用前文计算研究成果以及实际搜集数据,标定1号线各类车站模型参数,从模型拟合度、总体性以及参数显著性三方面进行检验,并对模型结果进行分析。通过检验并改进后的模型拟合度较好,可用于轨道交通对房地产价格影响计算的预测研究。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, the scale of the city expands rapidly and the traffic problem becomes more and more serious. Urban rail transit system has the characteristics of large volume, high efficiency and safety, and its construction and operation has become one of the fundamental solutions to alleviate urban congestion. On the one hand, rail transit can inject new development vitality into urban public transport, on the other hand, it also brings obvious external benefits to the surrounding environment. Therefore, the scope and extent of the impact of rail transit has been an important research topic of urban public transport system. At present, the external benefits brought by the domestic rail transit mainly feed back to the owners of the land use right along the lines. How to promote the external benefits to feed back to the rail transit system in a timely and effective manner, Reducing state and local government investment pressure has become one of the problems to be solved. Therefore, it is of theoretical value and practical significance to establish a quantitative analysis model to measure and evaluate the impact range and development benefit of rail transit. Firstly, the paper expounds the relationship between rail transit and real estate development effect from two aspects: the dynamic feedback relation between rail transit and real estate development effect, and the stimulating effect on real estate development. Make clear the theory of the model of the influence range of the rail transit corridor on the real estate development effect, compare and analyze the two modeling ideas based on reachability and travel cost from the three angles of model parameters, theoretical basis and result reliability. On the premise of defining the structure and calculation method of travel cost, the paper constructs the model of the impact of rail transit corridor on real estate development based on travel cost, and calibrates the parameters of the model combined with the actual data of Metro Line 1 in Chengdu. The influence range of line 1 on real estate development effect is calculated, and the result is analyzed. Secondly, according to the previous research results, it is found that the land nature of the rail transit station location has great influence on the calculation value of the influence range. Therefore, this paper expounds the necessity and feasibility of the station classification. The systematic cluster analysis method is used to classify rail transit stations. According to the nature of each station in Line 1, the "outlier station"-Ocean Park Station is classified as an independent class by using the shortest distance method. Then the "non-outlier station" is divided into three categories by Ward method. Thirdly, on the basis of clarifying the theory of real estate price, this paper compares and analyzes the two modeling ideas of real estate price from four angles: model application, parameters, theoretical basis and result credibility. The influence model of rail transit on real estate price based on station classification is constructed. Finally, the residential district along Line 1 is analyzed as an example. By means of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper determines the input and output parameters of rail transit model based on station classification on real estate price, and calibrates all kinds of station model parameters of Line 1 by using the previous research results and actual data collection. The model fitting degree, the totality and the significance of the parameters are tested, and the results of the model are analyzed. It can be used to predict the influence of rail transit on real estate price.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F572;F299.23

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