南通港保税物流中心投资风险研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 02:52

本文选题：保税物流中心 + 投资风险　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，随着国际贸易的快速发展，我国港口也得到相应发展。港口经济是沿海城市经济的重要组成部分，以港口经济带动城市发展，并将港口物流作为港口城市的支柱产业已成为沿海当地政府的共识。保税物流是现代港口的重要标志之一，作为保税物流业务的重要载体，保税物流中心对港口的发展起着较大的促进作用。保税物流中心的建设具有投资成本高、回收期长的特点，并且由于它受国际、国内双重经济环境的影响，导致其投资风险不确定性增大，投资风险评估是保税物流中心规划阶段的重要研究内容。本文以南通港保税物流中心投资风险为研究对象，首先从我国港口物流及保税物流的发展现状及趋势，南通港与周边港口发展条件的比较，南通港保税物流中心建设位置条件，以及保税物流中心的建设规模四个角度全面分析了南通港保税物流中心的建设发展环境，结合保税物流中心的特点得出影响南通港保税物流中心投资风险的主要因素，并以此为基础构建投资风险评估指标体系；然后根据贝叶斯网络定性建模和定量建模的原理建立南通港保税物流中心投资风险评估模型，并测度南通港保税物流中心投资风险；依据投资风险测度结果，针对潜在竞争风险、服务能力风险等较大风险源提出了有效的防范与应对措施，包括与上海港进行错位竞争、合作发展，开展金融、信息等增值服务等；最后指出本文研究得到的结论及研究不足之处，并提出今后深入研究的方向。本文的创新之处主要体现在两个方面：第一，结合保税物流中心的特点，构建了保税物流中心投资风险评估指标体系；第二，根据贝叶斯网络的基本原理，，建立了保税物流中心投资风险测度模型。研究南通港保税物流中心的投资风险，一方面对南通港保税物流中心的投资决策有着直接的指导意义；另一方面，建立了保税物流中心投资风险评估指标体系及测度模型，完善了保税物流中心的相关理论研究。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of international trade, China's ports have also been developed accordingly. Port economy is an important part of coastal city economy. It has become a common understanding of the local government of coastal areas to promote the development of the city by port economy and to regard port logistics as the pillar industry of the port city. Bonded logistics is one of the important symbols of modern ports. As an important carrier of bonded logistics business, bonded logistics center plays a greater role in promoting the development of ports. The construction of bonded logistics center is characterized by high investment cost and long payback period. Investment risk assessment is an important research content in the planning stage of bonded logistics center. This paper takes the investment risk of Nantong Port bonded Logistics Center as the research object. Firstly, from the current situation and trend of port logistics and bonded logistics in our country, the comparison between Nantong port and surrounding ports, the position conditions of Nantong port bonded logistics center construction. As well as the construction scale of bonded logistics center, this paper comprehensively analyzes the construction and development environment of Nantong port bonded logistics center, and draws the main factors that affect the investment risk of Nantong port bonded logistics center, combined with the characteristics of bonded logistics center. Based on this, the investment risk assessment index system is constructed, and then the investment risk assessment model of Nantong Port bonded Logistics Center is established according to the principles of Bayesian network qualitative modeling and quantitative modeling, and the investment risk of Nantong Port bonded Logistics Center is measured. According to the result of investment risk measurement, this paper puts forward effective prevention and countermeasures against potential competition risk and service capacity risk, including mismatch competition with Shanghai Port, cooperative development, and development of finance. Finally, this paper points out the conclusions and shortcomings of this study, and puts forward the direction of further research in the future. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, combined with the characteristics of bonded logistics center, the investment risk assessment index system of bonded logistics center is constructed; second, according to the basic principle of Bayesian network, The investment risk measurement model of bonded logistics center is established. The research on investment risk of bonded logistics center in Nantong port has direct guiding significance for investment decision of bonded logistics center in Nantong port on the one hand, and establishes index system and measurement model of investment risk of bonded logistics center on the other hand. Improve the bonded logistics center related theoretical research.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.6

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