沈阳地铁二号线经济效益预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 14:21

本文选题：地铁 + 客流预测　；参考：《沈阳建筑大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：沈阳市公共交通的发展严重已经制约了城市社会和经济的可持续发展。为推动城市交通的可持续发展,沈阳市规划了由11条线路组成,全长400公里的快速轨道交通网,其中地铁二号线是沈阳市快速轨道交通网规划线路中南北方向最重要的一条线路。修建地铁不仅耗资巨大,而且在运营阶段,政府同样需要付出大量的社会和经济成本来维持地铁运营。地铁作为公共建设产品,地铁建成运营后带来的一系列社会经济效益必须要和地铁的建设运营成本相匹配,因此有必要对二号线投入运营后的经济效益作全方位的深入预测分析。本文采用了“四阶段法”对沈阳地铁二号线的客流进行了预测。首先预测分析了地铁二号线建设后对沿线的土地开发、城市建设及人口分布产生的影响,对地铁二号线运营初期、近期和远期的经济、人口、就业、用地等情况进行了预测分析,在此基础上进行了出行产生预测；根据现状居民出行调查结果,建立了居民出行分布模型,并预测未来居民全方式出行OD表；然后标定交通方式划分模型,进行方式划分,获得公交类(常规公交+轨道交通)、自行车、步行、小汽车等各种交通方式的OD；最后将公交类OD在公交网上分配,得到地铁二号线的客流预测数据。在客流预测的基础上,本文对地铁票价水平、沿线土地利用规划实现程度、人口规模、公交接驳、国家宏观政策等影响客流的因素分布进行了敏感性分析,在此基础上,分析了地铁二号线各目标年地铁票价收益以及收益最大化的票价定价策略。利用城市轨道交通成本构成理论,分析预测了运营初期地铁二号线运营固定成本和变动成本,并对成本和收益进行了比较分析,得出地铁二号线运营初期的利润值和盈亏平衡点。对目前地铁运营建设部门提高收益和政府部门对地铁政策扶持提出了建设性的意见和建议。
[Abstract]:The development of public transportation in Shenyang has seriously restricted the sustainable development of urban society and economy. In order to promote the sustainable development of urban transportation, Shenyang has planned a rapid rail transit network consisting of 11 lines and a total length of 400 km. Subway Line 2 is one of the most important lines in the planning of Shenyang rapid rail transit network. The construction of subway is not only expensive, but also the government has to pay a lot of social and economic costs to maintain the subway operation. As a public construction product, a series of social and economic benefits brought about by the construction and operation of the subway must be matched with the construction and operation cost of the subway. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the economic benefits of line 2 in all directions. In this paper, the four-stage method is used to forecast the passenger flow of Shenyang Metro Line 2. First of all, it predicts and analyzes the impact of the construction of Metro Line 2 on the land development, urban construction and population distribution along the line, and on the early, short-term and long-term economic, population, and employment of Metro Line 2. Based on the analysis of land use and other conditions, the trip generation is predicted. According to the survey results of current residents, the model of resident travel distribution is established, and the OD table of future residents' all-mode travel is predicted. Then demarcate the traffic mode partition model, carry on the way division, obtain the ODs of the public transportation (conventional public transit rail transit, bicycle, walking, car, etc.); finally, allocate the OD class of the public transport in the public transportation network. Get the passenger flow forecast data of Metro Line 2. On the basis of passenger flow prediction, this paper makes a sensitivity analysis on the distribution of factors influencing the passenger flow, such as the subway fare level, the realization degree of land use planning along the line, the population scale, the bus connection, the national macro policy, and so on. This paper analyzes the target year of subway fare revenue and the pricing strategy of maximization of profit. Based on the theory of urban rail transit cost composition, this paper analyzes and forecasts the fixed and variable costs of subway line 2 in the early stage of operation, and makes a comparative analysis of the costs and benefits. The profit value and breakeven point of subway line 2 are obtained. Some constructive suggestions and suggestions are put forward for the subway operation and construction department to improve the profit and the government department to support the subway policy.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U231;F572

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