巨型国际集装箱船舶投资风险评价

发布时间：2018-06-14 10:47

本文选题：巨型 + 集装箱船　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机爆发后,班轮公司为了应对市场变化,在巨型集装箱船舶运营航线(特别是远东-欧洲航线)上采取了集体降速增加运营船数的策略,并相应出现了建造整条航线船舶的情况。现行对于船舶风险评价的方法中,大多采用单船指标的方式,缺少对船队层面以及班轮公司决策的考虑,较难对新的变化做出评价。本文尝试从船队经营的角度,在班轮公司决策的基础上,采用蒙特卡洛模拟与决策树相结合的方法,对于整条航线船舶投资风险进行探讨分析。文中首先列明研究背景、研究意义以及相关的研究内容,简要说明了巨型集装箱船舶投资风险的特点,对决策树与蒙特卡洛法展开了相对详尽介绍,对巨型集装箱投资所面临的风险,集装箱船舶运营中的成本、收益以及相关参数进行了收集与整理,并在此基础进行建模。模型以净现值为目标函数,以净收益为决策标准,对于经济增长率,运力增长率以及与运价、装载率之间的相互关系进行了简单描述,加之燃油、利率、汇率、通胀等重要指标波动对决策目标的影响分析,最终利用Matlab编程得以实现,得出净现金值的概率分布情况,对项目加入最优收益决策下的期望收益以及风险做出评判,并可以得出决策方案选择以及未来运价与装载率的概率分布情况。本文中对各项重要变量都有详实的数据与文献支持,对于蒙特卡洛法所需要的输入变量的分布情况均利用相关软件进行了论证。本文中对于相关内容的研究属于探索性研究,供于参考,进一步完善后可用于实际应用。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, in response to the changes in the market, the liner company adopted a strategy of reducing speed collectively and increasing the number of vessels operating on giant container shipping routes (especially the far East-Europe route). And corresponding to the construction of the entire shipping line of the situation. In the current methods of ship risk assessment, the single ship index is mostly used, and the consideration of fleet level and liner company's decision is lacking, so it is difficult to evaluate the new changes. In this paper, from the point of view of fleet management and on the basis of liner company's decision, the paper uses the method of Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree to discuss and analyze the risk of ship investment on the whole route. In this paper, the research background, research significance and related research contents are listed, and the characteristics of investment risk of giant container ships are briefly explained. The decision tree and Monte Carlo method are introduced in detail. The risk of giant container investment, the cost, income and related parameters of container ship operation are collected and sorted, and the model is built on this basis. The model takes the net present value as the objective function and the net income as the decision criterion. It describes the economic growth rate, the capacity growth rate and the relationship between the economic growth rate, the capacity growth rate and the freight rate and the loading rate, together with the fuel, interest rate, exchange rate. The influence of inflation and other important indexes on the decision goal is analyzed and finally realized by Matlab programming. The probability distribution of net cash value is obtained and the expected income and risk under the optimal income decision are evaluated. The selection of decision scheme and the probability distribution of future freight rate and loading rate can be obtained. In this paper, all important variables are supported by detailed data and literature, and the distribution of input variables required by Monte Carlo method is demonstrated by relevant software. The research in this paper belongs to exploratory research and can be used for practical application after further improvement.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F551;F224

【引证文献】