岳阳港集疏运系统评价及改进方案研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 16:14

本文选题：港口集疏运系统 + 组合预测　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：岳阳港是湖南省唯一的国家一类口岸,是湖南第一大港,起到连接国内国际之间商业贸易的桥梁作用,同时也带动所在地的经济社会发展,港口经济在现代经济体系中已成为公认的增长极。作为重要的经济增长极,港口经济可以带动区域产业结构的调整,它的发展依赖于港口的天然条件及外界因素的影响,更受其自身集疏运系统的限制。港口集疏运系统与港口的生产与发展息息相关,是促进港口发展的重要因素之一。集疏运系统主要由铁路、公路、水运、航空、管道五种基本运输方式及相应的交接场站组成,连接港口和其经济腹地,是港口货物集运和输运的主要承担者。近年来,我国港口吞吐量一直呈现出快速增长的态势,随着吞吐量的快速增长,港口集疏运系统逐渐成为制约港口发展的瓶颈。首先,本文通过对岳阳港自身条件及经济腹地的经济和交通现状的分析,结合其历年吞吐量和集疏运量统计资料,利用组合预测法对岳阳港未来年集疏运量进行预测。并根据国内外港口集疏运系统现状及发展规律,分析了影响集疏运系统能效的主要因素。其次,在理论分析的基础上总结归纳出针对集疏运系统发展的评价指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)和德尔菲法的结合对评价指标进行权重的赋值,再通过模糊综合评价法对岳阳港集疏运系统现状进行综合评价,基于预测和评价的结果,提出岳阳港集疏运系统改进的方向和措施。最后,对假设已完成改进的岳阳港集疏运系统进行在评价,分析再评价结果,指出改进岳阳港港口集疏运体系可以提高岳阳港在内河枢纽港口中的地位,为把岳阳建设成为全国综合交通重要枢纽提供条件。
[Abstract]:Yueyang Port is the only national first-class port in Hunan Province. It is the largest port in Hunan Province. It acts as a bridge between domestic and international commerce and trade, and at the same time, it also promotes the local economic and social development. Port economy has become a recognized growth pole in modern economic system. As an important economic growth pole, port economy can promote the adjustment of regional industrial structure. Its development depends on the natural conditions of the port and the influence of external factors, and is also restricted by its own transportation system. Port transportation system is closely related to port production and development, and is one of the important factors to promote port development. The collection and distribution system is composed of five basic transportation modes of railway, highway, water, air and pipeline and the corresponding transfer station. It connects the port and its economic hinterland, and is the main carrier of the port cargo collection and transportation. In recent years, port throughput in China has been showing a rapid growth situation, with the rapid growth of throughput, port transportation system has gradually become a bottleneck restricting the development of ports. First of all, through the analysis of Yueyang Port's own conditions and the economic and traffic situation of the economic hinterland, combined with the statistical data of its throughput and transportation volume over the years, the combined forecasting method is used to predict the future annual traffic volume of Yueyang Port. According to the present situation and development law of port transportation system at home and abroad, the main factors affecting energy efficiency of collecting and distributing system are analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of theoretical analysis, the evaluation index system for the development of collecting and distributing system is summarized, and the weight of evaluation index is assigned by the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The present situation of Yueyang port transportation system is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the prediction and evaluation results, the direction and measures of improving Yueyang port collection and distribution system are put forward. Finally, an evaluation of the improved Yueyang port transportation system is carried out, and the result of re-evaluation is analyzed. It is pointed out that the improvement of the Yueyang port collection and distribution system can enhance the Yueyang port's position in the inland river hub port. In order to build Yueyang into an important national comprehensive transportation hub to provide conditions.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552

【参考文献】