深圳港拖轮船队的优化配置

发布时间：2018-06-25 12:26

本文选题：拖轮船队 + 指数平滑　；参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济高速发展,港口行业呈现出蓬勃发展的良好局面,战略地位的不断提高使得港口发展与国民经济的联系日益紧密。位于珠三角的深圳港,随着新港区的不断发展与壮大,航道的修缮与挖深,到港船舶的数量会不断增加,而且越来越明显的船舶大型化也会使港口配套设施的要求不断提高,比如拖轮。只有港口的拖轮数量合理并具有前瞻性,减少拖轮购置和营运的成本,保证船舶进出港靠离码头的安全,才能使港口生产效率及拖轮船队的经济效益得到共同的发展。论文首先在对深圳港概况介绍的基础上,对港口现有拖轮状况进行了分析,包括拖轮的投资效益情况和利用率情况,并对未来拖轮市场发展趋势进行了预测与展望。然后结合指数平滑预测方法,对部分港口生产要素进行了预测,比如港口吞吐量和船舶到港艘次数,这两个要素不仅是港口本身生产作业考核的重要指标,也是研究拖轮船队需求的必要参考标准。关于拖轮船队的配置,从港口生产要素方面分析,可以分别按照港口吞吐量和船舶到港艘次数,单要素的分析未来拖轮船队所需的马力数；从拖轮公司营运方面分析,我们应用了模糊优选模型,选取了四项指标并通过计算给出了主流马力拖轮的最优排序。最后在两方面综合分析的基础上结合专家经验,确定2012年拖轮船队的结构配置。本文期望能通过相关分析,为港口科学合理地配置港作拖轮、减少配置港作拖轮中的盲目性提出较为严谨的计算方法,使港作拖轮船队的配置规模和结构日趋科学、合理,从而满足港口生产经营及未来发展的需要。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the port industry has shown a good situation of vigorous development. With the continuous improvement of strategic position, the port development and the national economy are increasingly closely linked. With the continuous development and expansion of the new port area, the number of ships coming to the port will continue to increase with the continuous development and expansion of the new port area in the Pearl River Delta. Like tugs. Only if the number of tugs in the port is reasonable and forward-looking, the cost of purchasing and operating tugs can be reduced, and the safety of ship entering and leaving wharf can be ensured, the port production efficiency and the economic benefit of tugboat fleet will be developed together. Firstly, on the basis of the introduction of Shenzhen Port, the paper analyzes the status of the existing tugs in the port, including the investment efficiency and utilization ratio of the tugs, and forecasts the development trend of the tug market in the future. Then combined with the exponential smoothing forecasting method, this paper forecasts some port production factors, such as port throughput and the number of ships coming to port. These two factors are not only the important indicators of the port itself production operation assessment. It is also the necessary reference standard to study the demand of tugboat fleet. With regard to the configuration of the tugboat fleet, from the point of view of the factors of port production, it is possible to analyse the horsepower required for the future tugboat fleet according to the port throughput and the number of ships arriving at the port, respectively; and from the point of view of the operation of the tugboat company, The fuzzy optimal selection model is applied, four indexes are selected and the optimal ranking of mainstream horsepower tugs is given by calculation. Finally, the configuration of the tugboat fleet in 2012 is determined on the basis of the two aspects of comprehensive analysis combined with the experience of experts. This paper hopes to put forward a more rigorous calculation method for the scientific and reasonable configuration of the port as tugboat and to reduce the blindness in the allocation of the tugboat, so as to make the configuration scale and structure of the port tug fleet more scientific and reasonable. In order to meet the port production and future development needs.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F552

【参考文献】