我国交通行业碳排放影响因素与减排潜力研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 17:06

本文选题：交通行业 + 碳排放　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程步伐的持续加快,我国交通行业的发展越来越迅速,使得煤炭和石油等化石能源消费出现大幅度增加,进而引起我国交通行业二氧化碳排放量迅速增加。因此,对我国交通行业碳排放影响因素与减排潜力进行深入研究在理论与实践上都具有重大意义。据统计,我国交通行业碳排放占我国总碳排放量的比例接近10%,随着我国城镇化和工业化进程的推进,我国交通行业碳排放量将会持续增加。在这个背景下,本文查阅大量的国内外文献,对我国交通行业的发展现状及特征进行分析,同时,对我国交通行业近几年及未来几年的碳排放量进行预测。本文利用LMDI分解方法将我国交通行业碳排放影响因素分解为碳排放系数效应、能源强度效应、运输结构效应、运输强度效应、城镇化水平效应、收入效应、产业结构效应、第三产业贡献度以及人口规模效应9种影响因素。通过分析可知,收入效应和城镇化水平效应是促进我国交通行业碳排放增长的主要因素。同时,运输结构效应、产业结构效应以及人口规模效应三个因素也都不同程度的促进了交通行业碳排放的增长,但是作用相对较小;而能源强度效应和运输强度效应则是抑制我国交通行业碳排放增长的主要因素。本文针对不同效应的分析结果制定三种减排潜力情景,经过模拟分析可知,我国交通行业具有很大的减排潜力,尤其是交通行业中公路运输部门的减排潜力最大。根据文章分析结果,本文提出了一系列有针对性的政策建议,为以后我国政府在交通行业制定节能减排策略提供依据和参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's urbanization, the consumption of fossil energy, such as coal and oil, is increasing rapidly, which leads to the rapid increase of carbon dioxide emissions from China's transportation industry. Therefore, it is of great significance in theory and practice to study the influence factors and potential of carbon emission reduction in China's transportation industry. According to statistics, the proportion of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry is close to 10 percent of the total carbon emissions. With the development of urbanization and industrialization, the carbon emissions of China's transport industry will continue to increase. In this context, this paper reviews a large number of domestic and foreign literature, analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China's transport industry, at the same time, forecasts the carbon emissions in recent years and in the next few years. This paper uses LMDI decomposition method to decompose the factors of carbon emission into carbon emission coefficient effect, energy intensity effect, transport structure effect, transport intensity effect, urbanization level effect, income effect, industrial structure effect. The third industry contribution degree and the population scale effect 9 kinds of influence factors. The results show that the income effect and urbanization level effect are the main factors to promote the increase of carbon emissions in China's transport industry. At the same time, the transport structure effect, the industrial structure effect and the population scale effect all promoted the transportation industry carbon emission growth to varying degrees, but the function is relatively small; Energy intensity effect and transport intensity effect are the main factors to restrain the increase of carbon emission in China's transportation industry. According to the analysis results of different effects, this paper formulates three scenarios of emission reduction potential. Through simulation analysis, it can be seen that China's transport industry has great emission reduction potential, especially the road transport sector has the greatest emission reduction potential. According to the analysis results, this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations, which provides the basis and reference for our government to formulate energy-saving and emission reduction strategies in the transportation industry in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X322;F512.3

【参考文献】