交通基础设施的区域经济效应与影响机制研究——来自郑西高铁沿线的证据

发布时间：2018-07-03 05:41

  本文选题：高速铁路 + 经济效应　； 参考：《经济科学》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文将郑西高铁作为一项自然实验,选取1995年至2015年市级平衡面板数据,采用项目评估中的合成控制法,构造处理组的"反事实"状态,分析郑西高铁对沿线区域的经济效应。研究表明:(1)合成控制法能够很好地拟合郑西高铁修建前西安、渭南、三门峡与洛阳的经济增长路径;(2)郑西高铁的经济效应存在1至2年的滞后期,虽伴随小幅波动,但整体呈上升趋势且基本维持相对稳定状态;(3)郑西高铁对四市的平均效应分别为0.083、0.115、0.116及0.111,人均产出分别增长了0.97%、1.37%、0.91%及1.23%;(4)采用安慰剂试验、排序检验及双重差分法进行稳健性检验,其中双重差分法所得四市平均处理效应分别为0.091、0.141、0.104、0.159,这与合成控制法结果较为接近;(5)通过影响机制分析发现,郑西高铁能够提高沿线区域的可达性及经济联系强度,河南各市与西安之间的经济联系强度增幅较大,而陕西边界各市与郑州的经济联系强度相对较弱。
[Abstract]:In this paper, as a natural experiment, the authors select the municipal equilibrium panel data from 1995 to 2015, construct the "counterfactual" state of the treatment group by using the synthetic control method in the project evaluation, and analyze the economic effect of the high-speed railway in the area along the route. The results show that: (1) the synthetic control method can well fit the economic growth paths of Xi'an, Weinan, Sanmenxia and Luoyang before the construction of Zhengxi high-speed railway, and (2) the economic effect of Zheng Xi high-speed railway has a lag period of 1 to 2 years, although it is accompanied by small fluctuations. However, the overall trend is upward and the relative stability is basically maintained. (3) the average effect of Zhengxi high-speed railway on the four cities is 0.083 / 0.1150.116 and 0.111 respectively, and the per capita output has increased by 0.97 / 1.370.91% and 1.23g / 1 respectively; (4) the placebo test, the sequencing test and the double difference method are used to test the robustness of the four cities. The average treatment effect of the four cities obtained by the double difference method is 0.091 / 0.141 / 0.104 / 0.159respectively, which is close to the result of the synthetic control method. (5) through the analysis of the influence mechanism, it is found that the high speed rail in the west of Zhengzhou can improve the accessibility and the economic connection intensity of the area along the route. The intensity of economic connection between Henan city and Xi'an is larger than that between Shaanxi border city and Zhengzhou city.
【作者单位】： 南京财经大学财政与税务学院;西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71173165)的资助
【分类号】：F532.8
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本文编号：2092608