中国民航与高铁竞争因素的敏感性分析研究

发布时间：2018-07-15 12:50

【摘要】：在系统分析现有旅客民航与高铁出行方式选择影响因素的基础上,从购票、到站、中转换乘、出行、离站全过程视角全面科学地设计了旅客出行选择行为实验,获取旅客中长距离出行过程中民航与高铁的RP数据,将高铁作为参考方式建立BL方式选择模型,获取显著性影响因素的参数估计结果,并进行显著性影响因素的敏感性分析.研究结果表明:运行时间、出行距离、出行费用、到站时间、准时性是影响民航和高铁竞争的显著性因素;运行时间、出行距离、出行费用的弹性值分别为-3.05、1.39、1.07,绝对值均大于1,表明运行时间、出行距离、出行费用对高铁竞争下的民航选择富有弹性;到站时间、准时性的弹性值分别为0.41、-0.82,绝对值均小于1,表明到站时间和准时性对高铁竞争下民航的选择缺乏弹性.研究成果可为运输资源合理配置及交通运输政策制定提供重要的科学依据.
[Abstract]:On the basis of systematic analysis of the influencing factors of existing passenger civil aviation and high speed rail travel mode selection, from the view of purchase, arrival, transfer, travel and departure, the experiment of passenger travel choice behavior is designed, and the RP data of civil aviation and high speed rail in the long distance travel process are obtained, and the high speed rail is used as a reference to establish BL. The results show that running time, travel distance, travel cost, arrival time, punctuality are significant factors affecting the competition between civil aviation and high speed rail, and the elastic value of running time, travel distance and travel cost are divided. Not -3.05,1.39,1.07, the absolute value is more than 1, indicating that the running time, travel distance and travel cost are elastic to the civil aviation choice under the high speed rail competition; the arrival time, the elastic value of the punctuality are 0.41, and the absolute value is less than 1, indicating that the arrival time and the punctuality are inelastic to the selection of the civil aviation under the high speed of the high speed rail. It provides an important scientific basis for the rational allocation of transport resources and the formulation of transportation policies.
【作者单位】：西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院;东南大学交通学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(51338003) 中国博士后基金面上资助项目(2015M571644) 陕西省住房城乡建设科技开发计划资助项目(2015-K54)
【分类号】：F532;F562

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