S航运公司航线收益预测研究与应用

发布时间：2018-07-24 10:45

【摘要】：随着国内航空运输业的不断改革和发展,以及旅客运输业市场的竞争日益激烈,国内航运公司也逐渐开始加强在航线收益管理方面的研究和应用。而作为航线收益管理的重要组成部分,航线收益预测就成为企业关注的重点之一。本文旨在通过对航线收益的影响因素分析、以及回归模型预测方法的研究,并结合S航运公司的实际业务、以及现有的航线预测方法等,建立更为合理的、适用于S航运公司现状的航线预测模型,以期对公司的管理和决策起到一定的支持作用。论文首先从业务角度,分析了影响航线收益的主要因素,以此作为建立模型的基础;然后,通过对预测方法的分析和讨论,给出了适用于建立S航运公司航线收益预测模型的方法和步骤;最后,结合S航运公司当前的实际业务数据,运用回归法对航线收益与主要影响因素建立了多个模型,并进行模型间的对比、误差分析、综合评估等,最终得出适用于S航运公司的预测模型。
[Abstract]:With the continuous reform and development of domestic air transport industry, and the increasingly fierce competition in the passenger transport market, domestic shipping companies have gradually begun to strengthen the research and application of airline revenue management. As an important part of airline revenue management, airline revenue forecasting has become one of the key issues for enterprises. The purpose of this paper is to establish a more reasonable method by analyzing the influencing factors of route income and studying the forecasting method of regression model, combining with the actual business of S shipping company and the existing route forecasting methods, etc. This model is suitable for the current situation of S shipping company, in order to support the management and decision of the company. Firstly, the paper analyzes the main factors that affect the route income, which is the basis of the model, and then, through the analysis and discussion of the forecasting methods, The methods and steps of establishing the model of shipping line income prediction for S shipping company are given. Finally, combined with the actual business data of S shipping company, the regression method is used to establish several models of route income and main influencing factors. Finally, the prediction model suitable for S shipping company is obtained by comparing the models, error analysis, comprehensive evaluation and so on.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562.6;F560.68

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