中国交通运输投资及其经济溢出效应时空演化——1997-2013年省级面板的实证

发布时间：2018-08-13 10:22

【摘要】：交通运输投资是区域规划和政策制定的重要内容,但交通运输投资对促进经济增长的时空效应仍存在较大争议。在总结交通成本、交通投资与经济增长关系的基础上,建立1997-2013年省级尺度的交通运输投资、劳动力和经济总量的面板模型,综合评估交通投资对经济增长的多尺度时空间效应。研究发现:1全国层面上看,交通投资对经济增长具有显著的引导效应,其弹性系数为11.4%,但在不同地区这一弹性系数存在显著差异。总体上,在城市化水平和社会基础较好的东部和东北地区,交通运输投资对社会经济增长的作用更加明显。2在时间尺度上,随着中国城市化水平的不断扩大,交通投资对经济增长的作用也逐渐增强。3在考虑交通投资和经济总量时间滞后性之后,在全国层面上,当期交通投资和前期交通运输投资对经济的增长作用程度大致相同,但相对中西部地区而言,东部地区当期交通投资对经济增长作用更加显著。考虑到交通运输投资的这种时空差异,应根据不同地区不同发展阶段的特点,采取谨慎地投资策略以强化对经济增长的引导作用。
[Abstract]:Transportation investment is an important part of regional planning and policy making, but the space-time effect of transportation investment on promoting economic growth is still controversial. On the basis of summarizing the relationship among transportation cost, transportation investment and economic growth, a panel model of provincial scale transportation investment, labor force and economic aggregate from 1997 to 2013 is established to comprehensively evaluate the multi-scale spatial effect of traffic investment on economic growth. It is found that at the national level, traffic investment has a significant guiding effect on economic growth, with a elasticity coefficient of 11.4, but there are significant differences in this elastic coefficient in different regions. In general, in the eastern and northeast regions where the level of urbanization and the social basis are better, the role of transportation investment in social and economic growth is more obvious .2 on a time scale, with the continuous expansion of the level of urbanization in China, The effect of traffic investment on economic growth is also gradually strengthened. After considering the lag of traffic investment and total economic volume, at the national level, the effect of current traffic investment and pre-stage traffic investment on economic growth is roughly the same. However, compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region's current traffic investment has a more significant effect on economic growth. Considering the space-time difference of transportation investment, we should adopt prudent investment strategy according to the characteristics of different regions and different stages of development to strengthen the guiding role to economic growth.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院;北京大学城市规划与设计学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41371168) 深圳市海外高层次人才计划(KQCX20130628093909157)
【分类号】：F512.3

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