乌鲁木齐无水港容量研究

发布时间：2018-08-28 12:18

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的深入发展，一个统一的全球经济系统正在逐步形成，要素市场和商品市场不再仅仅局限于一个国家和地区，而是全球这个大市场。随着全球经济的迅速发展，商品市场和要素市场在各国之间不断进行交换，贸易全球化已经成为了不可逆转的趋势，而各国之间的相互贸易最终却需要国际物流这个环节来实现货物在国家间的流动和交换，以促进区域经济的发展和世界资源的优化配置。随着各国家与地区之间贸易不平衡的加剧，贸易摩擦和贸易壁垒层出不穷，新一轮的国际竞争逐渐转变为供应链物流的竞争，如何降低国际贸易过程中的物流成本，成为各国迫切要考虑的问题。伴随着我国进出口贸易规模的不断扩大，出口远远大于进口，面临的贸易摩擦更是有增无减，如何降低物流成本，在国际贸易中占据优势地位，也是我国对外贸易发展的出路。位于内陆地区的无水港作为具有沿海港口或沿边口岸功能的物流节点，不仅为内陆地区企业提供完善的物流服务，同时利用铁路运输、公路运输等多式联运方式，实现内陆无水港与沿海港口的无缝化链接，降低内陆地区商品出口的物流成本，促进内陆地区外向型经济的发展，提高东部产业向西部转移的驱动力，有利于实现产业结构的调整、升级，有助于实现区域经济协调发展，而且扩大沿海港口的腹地辐射范围，增加货源渠道，对沿海港口提升竞争力具有重要意义。但是我国无水港的发展仍然处于起步阶段，而且大多集中于沿海地区附近，中西部地区尤其是西部地区，无水港几乎处于空白阶段，本文试图通过研究乌鲁木齐无水港的容量问题来分析在我国西部地区的中心城市——乌鲁木齐建设无水港的可行性。本文首先描述了选题背景和研究意义，从国家战略和地方资源优势等方面分析得到无水港的发展对我国对外贸易的重要意义，然后针对相关的理论进行系统分析，发现国内外与无水港和无水港容量预测相关的文献比较少，突出了无水港容量研究的重要性和必要性。其次是相关的理论分析，主要是无水港的概念、分类、功能、形成路径以及与其他相关概念的区别分析和涉及的国际贸易理论介绍。再者是从乌鲁木齐发展无水港的可行性和必要性进行分析。在理论基础和现实基础之上，利用神经网络预测模型，选取与无水港容量相关的乌鲁木齐的地区生产总值、三次产业产值、进出口总值等12个因素作为输入指标进行预测，在单个因子的预测过程中，利用灰色预测模型进行预测，采用神经网络预测模型和灰色关联预测模型相结合的方法，，对乌鲁木齐无水港的容量进行预测，对乌鲁木齐建设无水港提供一定的决策支持依据。最后，对乌鲁木齐在规划布局、选址、发展、投资等方面提出一些建议和对策。
[Abstract]:With the further development of economic globalization, a unified global economic system is gradually formed, factor markets and commodity markets are not only confined to a country and region, but the global market. With the rapid development of the global economy and the continuous exchange of commodity and factor markets among countries, the globalization of trade has become an irreversible trend. However, the mutual trade between countries ultimately needs international logistics to realize the flow and exchange of goods among countries, in order to promote the development of regional economy and the optimal allocation of world resources. With the intensification of trade imbalance between countries and regions, trade friction and trade barriers emerge endlessly. The new round of international competition is gradually transformed into supply chain logistics competition, how to reduce the logistics costs in the process of international trade. It has become an urgent issue for all countries to consider. With the continuous expansion of China's import and export trade scale, the export is far greater than the import, and the trade friction is increasing. How to reduce the logistics cost and occupy the dominant position in the international trade is also the way out for the development of China's foreign trade. As a logistics node with the functions of coastal ports or border ports, waterless ports located in inland areas not only provide perfect logistics services for inland enterprises, but also make use of multimodal transport modes such as railway transport and road transport. To realize the seamless link between inland waterless ports and coastal ports, to reduce the logistics cost of inland commodity exports, to promote the development of export-oriented economy in inland areas, and to enhance the driving force of industrial transfer from east to west. It is beneficial to realize the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, to realize the coordinated development of regional economy, to expand the radiation range of coastal ports' hinterland, to increase the supply channels, and to enhance the competitiveness of coastal ports. However, the development of waterless ports in China is still in its infancy, and most of them are concentrated near the coastal areas. In the central and western regions, especially in the western region, the waterless ports are almost in the blank stage. This paper attempts to analyze the feasibility of constructing a waterless port in Urumqi, a central city in the western part of China, by studying the capacity of the waterless port in Urumqi. This paper first describes the background and research significance of the topic, analyzes the significance of the development of waterless ports to China's foreign trade from the aspects of national strategy and local resource advantages, and then makes a systematic analysis of the relevant theories. It is found that there are few literatures related to the prediction of the capacity of anhydrous ports and waterless ports at home and abroad, which highlights the importance and necessity of the research on the capacity of waterless ports. The second is the related theoretical analysis, mainly the concept, classification, function, formation path and the difference analysis with other related concepts and the introduction of international trade theory. Thirdly, the feasibility and necessity of developing waterless port in Urumqi are analyzed. On the basis of theory and practice, using neural network prediction model, 12 factors such as regional GDP, output value of tertiary industry, total import and export value of Urumqi, which are related to the capacity of waterless port, are selected as input indexes to forecast. In the process of single factor prediction, the grey forecasting model is used to predict the capacity of Urumqi waterless port, and the neural network forecasting model and the grey correlation forecasting model are used to forecast the capacity of Urumqi waterless port. It provides some decision support for the construction of waterless port in Urumqi. Finally, some suggestions and countermeasures are put forward for Urumqi in planning layout, location selection, development, investment and so on.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.6;TP18

【相似文献】