城际客运专线速度目标值的经济分析

发布时间：2018-09-11 17:39

【摘要】：城际客运专线的开通为城市群的产生与发展提供了便利的交通条件,从整体上提高了区域内的运输效率和服务水平,加速了区域经济的发展。客运专线作为一种铁路运输新产品,我们在关注它为社会经济发展做出巨大的贡献的同时,还要关注其为铁路运输企业带来的经济效益。速度目标值是客运专线的核心技术指标,也是客运专线参与运输市场竞争的核心竞争力。客运专线的土建工程投资、机车车辆购置等都要受到速度目标值的影响,这些影响最终要反应到运营成本当中,因此对速度目标值经济性的研究有重要意义。本文从速度目标值的影响因素分析入手,分析速度目标值与运营成本客运分担率的变化犬系。在运营成本研究中,提出速度目标相关性成本划分方法,以作业成本法的运输作业划分与科口汇总为基础,分析4个速度口标值等级下各项成本支出的变化规律,并给出运营成本的计算方法。在客运分担率分析中,采用分担率预测最常用MNL模型,依据旅客调查数据,应用TransCAD软件选取效用函数的形式和特性变量。根据标定的分担率模型分析各速度目标值等级下分担率随票价率、出行距离的变化规律。最后,以成渝客运专线为例,应用以上研究成果,重点研究在实际票价率下的运营成本和客票收入,同时以票价率为变量分析收益的变化规律。
[Abstract]:The opening of inter-city passenger dedicated line provides convenient transportation conditions for the generation and development of urban agglomeration, improves the transportation efficiency and service level in the whole area, and accelerates the development of regional economy. As a new product of railway transportation, we pay attention to its great contribution to social and economic development as well as the economic benefits it brings to railway transportation enterprises. The speed target value is the core technical index of passenger dedicated line, and also the core competitiveness of passenger dedicated line participating in transportation market competition. The investment in civil engineering of passenger dedicated line and the purchase of locomotive and rolling stock are all affected by the target value of speed, which will eventually be reflected in the operation cost, so it is of great significance to study the economy of speed target value. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the speed target, this paper analyzes the variation of the speed target value and the passenger transport share rate of the operation cost. In the research of operation cost, the paper puts forward the method of velocity target related cost division. Based on the division of transportation operation and the collection of department and mouth, this paper analyzes the change rule of each cost expenditure under the four speed port scale grades. The calculation method of operation cost is also given. In the analysis of passenger share rate, the most commonly used MNL model is the sharing rate prediction. According to the passenger survey data, the form and characteristic variables of utility function are selected by using TransCAD software. Based on the calibrated model of sharing rate, the variation of rate with fare rate and travel distance is analyzed under each speed target grade. Finally, taking Chengdu-Chongqing passenger dedicated line as an example and applying the above research results, the paper focuses on the operation cost and ticket income under the actual fare rate, and takes the ticket price rate as the variable to analyze the change rule of the income.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F512;U239.8

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