中国沿海港口吞吐量增长放缓的时间段判断

发布时间：2018-10-07 18:38

【摘要】：改革开放以来，随着经济和对外贸易的快速发展，我国沿海港口取得了跨越式的发展，港口吞吐量呈高速增长态势。这一现象诱发了国内建设港口的热潮，新建港口大规模扩大。然而港口吞吐量的增长最终会趋向饱和，按照目前的港口建设步伐将会出现沿海港口产能过剩。因此，提前及时地开展沿海港口吞吐量增长预警研究，通过相关政策控制港口建设步伐显得意义重大。本文运用国际贸易、国际物流等相关理论，对港口发展的理论与实践问题进行了探索与研究。结合港口发展的相关理论，本文主要开展了以4点工作：（一）重新定义了本文所涉及到的港口吞吐量增长放缓的时间段，通过分析已完成工业化国家及地区的港口吞吐量增长演变过程论证了港口吞吐量增长规律，并且对港口吞吐量增长与经贸指标之间的内在联系进行了深入的研究。（二）从历史角度研究了日韩港口吞吐量的增长演变过程，并在对港口吞吐量与经贸指标之间进行了相关性研究的基础上，分析归纳了其港口吞吐量增长放缓时间段所呈现的GDP、人均GDP、对外贸易及产业结构的规律性特征。（三）在分析我国港口与经贸发展状况的基础上，一方面分别通过Logistic模型、ARIMA模型及球面降维成分数据法对我国GDP、对外贸易量、产业结构等经贸指标的未来增长趋势进行预测，并结合日韩国家港口吞吐量增长放缓时间段所呈现的这些经贸指标的规律性特征，探讨出我国港口吞吐量增长放缓的时间段。另一方面根据已论证的港口吞吐量增长规律，建立Logistic模型来预测我国沿海港口吞吐量增长演变过程，，得出我国沿海港口吞吐量增长放缓的时间段。（四）基于本文的主要研究结论，提出我国沿海港口发展的调控建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economy and foreign trade, the coastal ports of our country have made leapfrog development, and the port throughput is increasing at a high speed. This phenomenon induces the upsurge of domestic construction port, the large-scale expansion of new port. However, the growth of port throughput will eventually become saturated, and there will be excess capacity in coastal ports at the present pace of port construction. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out early warning research on port throughput growth in advance and to control the pace of port construction through relevant policies. Based on the relevant theories of international trade and international logistics, this paper explores and studies the theory and practice of port development. Combined with the relevant theory of port development, this paper mainly carries out four points of work: (1) redefining the period of port throughput growth slowdown, Through analyzing the evolution process of port throughput growth in industrialized countries and regions, the law of port throughput growth is demonstrated, and the internal relationship between port throughput growth and economic and trade indexes is deeply studied. (2) from the historical point of view, the paper studies the evolution of port throughput in Japan and Korea, and studies the correlation between port throughput and economic and trade indicators. The characteristics of GDP, per capita GDP, foreign trade and industrial structure in the period of slow growth of port throughput are analyzed and summarized. (3) on the basis of analyzing the development of port and economy and trade in China, on the one hand, through Logistic model Arima model and spherical dimension reduction component data method, the future growth trend of China's GDP, foreign trade volume, industrial structure and other economic and trade indicators are forecasted. Combining with the regular characteristics of these economic and trade indexes in the period when the port throughput growth of Japan and Korea is slowing down, this paper discusses the time period when the port throughput growth of our country is slowing down. On the other hand, according to the proven law of port throughput growth, Logistic model is established to predict the evolution process of China's coastal port throughput growth, and the time period for the slowdown of China's coastal port throughput growth is obtained. (4) based on the main conclusions of this paper, some suggestions on the regulation and control of the development of China's coastal ports are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552

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