城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 19:45

【摘要】：城际铁路建设已日益受到政府的重视和民众的关注。在建设实施期，城际铁路施工承包商会遇到来自自然、社会等方面的多方风险。在项目风险因素中，施工承包商遇到的外部主体行为风险越来越突出，这些外部行为风险会影响项目目标的实现，如果不加以控制将直接影响城际铁路工程建设的顺利进行，甚至会造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡。因此，对城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险进行研究，很有现实的必要。本论文首先从城际铁路施工承包商角度出发，结合文献资料，针对施工承包商的外部行为风险因素进行分析，完成了对城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险的识别与分析。继而从外部主体无法履行合同产生的信用行为风险、外部主体追求自身利益最大化产生的道德行为风险以及外部主体自身能力不足产生的能力行为风险三个角度对该行为风险的形成机理进行了探讨，并以此为风险初始清单，展开对施工承包商外部主体特定行为的问卷调查，在大量实地调研的基础上结合德尔菲专家咨询法构建了一套城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险评价的指标体系，其中包括6个一级指标、9个二级指标和21个三级指标。一级指标分别为：业主行为风险、监理工程师行为风险、设计者行为风险、材料设备供应商行为风险、政府行政主管部门人员行为风险以及沿线居民和单位行为风险，并针对三级指标提出了详细的评分细则。采用灰色定权聚类方法建立了城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险评价模型。该方法在充分吸收专家评价知识、经验的同时，又对一些主体行为风险界定不清的判断进行了定量化处理，，为实际项目提供一个实用、简便的评价方法。并利用该模型进行了实例分析，最后给出了对城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险的控制措施。本论文对城际铁路施工承包商的外部行为风险研究丰富和完善了城际铁路建设项目风险管理理论，试图对今后城际铁路施工承包商外部行为风险过程评价提供理论指导和实践参考。
[Abstract]:The construction of intercity railway has been paid more and more attention by the government and the public. In the construction implementation period, inter-city railway construction contractors encountered from natural, social and other aspects of risk. Among the risk factors of the project, the behavior risk of the external subject encountered by the construction contractor is more and more prominent. These external behavioral risks will affect the realization of the project objectives. If not controlled, it will directly affect the smooth progress of the inter-city railway project construction. It can even cause serious economic losses and casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to study the external risk of intercity railway construction contractor. Firstly, from the angle of inter-city railway construction contractor, combined with the literature, this paper analyzes the external behavior risk factors of the construction contractor, and completes the identification and analysis of the external behavior risk of the inter-city railway construction contractor. Then the risk of credit behavior arising from the inability of the external subject to perform the contract, This paper probes into the forming mechanism of the behavior risk from three angles: the moral behavior risk caused by the external subject pursuing the maximization of its own interests and the ability behavior risk caused by the external subject's own insufficient capacity, which is regarded as the initial list of the risks. Based on a large number of field investigations and Delphi's expert consultation method, a set of index system of external behavior risk assessment of intercity railway construction contractor is constructed, which is based on a questionnaire survey on the specific behavior of the external subject of the construction contractor. These include 6 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators. The first grade indicators are: the behavior risk of the owner, the behavior risk of the supervision engineer, the behavior risk of the designer, the behavior risk of the material and equipment supplier, the behavior risk of the personnel of the government administrative department, and the behavior risk of residents and units along the line. At the same time, the detailed grading rules are put forward for the three-level index. The external behavior risk assessment model of intercity railway contractor is established by grey weight clustering method. This method not only fully absorbs the expert evaluation knowledge and experience, but also quantifies the judgment of some subjects' behavior risk which is not clearly defined, and provides a practical and simple evaluation method for the actual project. Finally, the control measures of the exterior behavior risk of the intercity railway contractor are given. This paper enriches and perfects the risk management theory of inter-city railway construction project by studying the external behavior risk of inter-city railway construction contractor. This paper attempts to provide theoretical guidance and practical reference for the evaluation of external behavior risk process of intercity railway construction contractors in the future.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F532;F426.92;F224

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