船舶大型化对干散货海运市场的影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-02 17:57
【摘要】：近年来,国际铁矿石贸易激增极大地刺激了全球大型干散货船队特别是超大型矿砂船队的发展,而淡水河谷40万吨超大型矿砂船队建设更是使干散货船大型化问题成为航运界讨论和研究的热点。在当前干散货船舶供需失衡和全球经济复苏疲软的背景下,研究大型干散货船建造对航运市场有如何影响,尤其是研究国际矿商主导大型干散货船建设对航运市场乃至国际海运贸易市场的影响具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。 首先,本文通过对全球干散货船队及船东的实证分析,得到干散货船舶大型化发展的现状和特征,并利用时间序列法和趋势外推法对未来几年内船舶大型化发展的趋势进行预测,研究及预测结果表明未来几年干散货船队加速大型化的趋势将保持不变,而且将在很大程度上由国际矿商主导。然后,本文利用计量统计和费用分析的方法研究干散货船大型化的经济合理性,得到超大型干散货船能够适应海运需求增长,降低海运成本,具有较强的经济合理性的初步结论。接着,本文以国际矿商促使干散货船过度大型化为前提研究在当前市场条件下干散货船超大型化对全球海运市场、国际海运贸易和国内外港口建设的负面影响,研究表明一方面超大型干散货船建设将加剧航运市场供需失衡及港口能力过剩,另一方面淡水河谷的VLOC船队建设旨在控制海运贸易产业链获取额外利润。最后,本文从航运企业和航运产业链方面阐述了应对船舶大型化的对策建议,我国干散货运输企业需要积极参与船舶大型化,我国政府主管部门及相关企业需要共同维护我国钢铁产业链利益和钢铁贸易安全,促进我国航运和钢铁产业健康发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the surge in international iron ore trade has greatly stimulated the development of large dry bulk cargo fleets around the world, especially super-large ore fleets. The construction of Vale 400000 ton super large ore flotilla makes the large-scale dry bulk cargo ship become a hot topic in the shipping field. Against the background of the current imbalance between supply and demand of dry bulk ships and the weak global economic recovery, this paper studies how the construction of large dry bulk carriers will affect the shipping market. In particular, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the influence of the construction of large dry bulk carriers led by international miners on the shipping market and even the international maritime trade market. First of all, through the empirical analysis of the global dry bulk fleet and shipowners, this paper obtains the status quo and characteristics of the large-scale development of dry bulk ships. The time series method and trend extrapolation method are used to predict the trend of large-scale development of ships in the next few years. The research and forecast results show that the trend of accelerating large-scale dry bulk cargo fleet will remain unchanged in the next few years. And will be largely dominated by international miners. Then, using the methods of econometric statistics and cost analysis, this paper studies the economic rationality of the large-scale dry bulk carrier, and obtains that the super-large dry bulk carrier can adapt to the increase of maritime demand and reduce the shipping cost. Have strong economic rationality of the preliminary conclusion. Then, based on the premise of oversize dry bulk carriers by international miners, this paper studies the negative effects of oversize dry bulk carriers on the global shipping market, international maritime trade and port construction at home and abroad under the current market conditions. On the one hand, the construction of super-large dry bulk carriers will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping market and the excess port capacity. On the other hand, the construction of Vale's VLOC fleet is aimed at controlling the marine trade industry chain to obtain additional profits. Finally, this paper expounds the countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the ship size from the aspects of shipping enterprises and shipping industry chain. The dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises of our country need to take an active part in the ship enlargement. Our government departments and related enterprises need to jointly maintain the interests of China's iron and steel industry chain and the safety of iron and steel trade to promote the healthy development of our shipping and steel industry.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F550;U692.6
本文编号：2306524
[Abstract]:In recent years, the surge in international iron ore trade has greatly stimulated the development of large dry bulk cargo fleets around the world, especially super-large ore fleets. The construction of Vale 400000 ton super large ore flotilla makes the large-scale dry bulk cargo ship become a hot topic in the shipping field. Against the background of the current imbalance between supply and demand of dry bulk ships and the weak global economic recovery, this paper studies how the construction of large dry bulk carriers will affect the shipping market. In particular, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to study the influence of the construction of large dry bulk carriers led by international miners on the shipping market and even the international maritime trade market. First of all, through the empirical analysis of the global dry bulk fleet and shipowners, this paper obtains the status quo and characteristics of the large-scale development of dry bulk ships. The time series method and trend extrapolation method are used to predict the trend of large-scale development of ships in the next few years. The research and forecast results show that the trend of accelerating large-scale dry bulk cargo fleet will remain unchanged in the next few years. And will be largely dominated by international miners. Then, using the methods of econometric statistics and cost analysis, this paper studies the economic rationality of the large-scale dry bulk carrier, and obtains that the super-large dry bulk carrier can adapt to the increase of maritime demand and reduce the shipping cost. Have strong economic rationality of the preliminary conclusion. Then, based on the premise of oversize dry bulk carriers by international miners, this paper studies the negative effects of oversize dry bulk carriers on the global shipping market, international maritime trade and port construction at home and abroad under the current market conditions. On the one hand, the construction of super-large dry bulk carriers will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping market and the excess port capacity. On the other hand, the construction of Vale's VLOC fleet is aimed at controlling the marine trade industry chain to obtain additional profits. Finally, this paper expounds the countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the ship size from the aspects of shipping enterprises and shipping industry chain. The dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises of our country need to take an active part in the ship enlargement. Our government departments and related enterprises need to jointly maintain the interests of China's iron and steel industry chain and the safety of iron and steel trade to promote the healthy development of our shipping and steel industry.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F550;U692.6
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 张婧姝;我国进口铁矿石适宜船型研究[D];大连海事大学;2013年
，本文编号：2306524
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