大连市出租车运力合理规模研究
发布时间：2018-11-11 11:50
【摘要】：随着生活水平不断提高，人们对公交客运的要求越来越高，这时具有快速、舒适等特点的出租车的需求正好满足了出行者高层次的需求，，它已成为城市客运交通系统的一个重要补充。出租车作为城市客运交通系统中重要一环，在系统中应当占有多大的分担率，政府每年的投放量该如何控制，如何才能使城市的客运交通系统更加完善，更好地促进出租车行业健康稳定的发展，现在已成为一个越来越被关注的课题。 大连作为一个走在发展前列的城市，出租车行业在近几年发展却比较缓慢，本文以大连市为例，通过历史数据对大连市出租车的运力规模进行评价和修正。但随着大连地铁即将建成，在未来要根据这一种重要影响因素，控制好出租车投放量，避免在大连地铁建成之后，出现投放量过大而导致空载率过高的现象。本文先对影响客运总量的因素进行了一一分析，然后运用SPSS软件对未来的客运总量进行预测，再通过建立出租车分担率模型，分别计算出地铁建成前后出租车不同的分担率，再通过供需平衡法来计算出租车合理的运力规模，然后对此运力规模进行评价分析，并对出租车行业提出了建议。 现在大多数城市地铁已经建成或即将建成，这对出租车市场会造成不小的冲击，在面对这种情况，如何更加合理的推算出出租车的运力规模是非常重要的。大多数研究并没有把地铁这一重要影响因素加入到模型中，这对于合理计算出租车运力规模是不准确的，本文在模型中加入这一重要影响因素，从而更加合理的计算出租车运力规模。论文旨在为大连市出租车行业提供理论依据，为出租车运力规模调控提供科学合理的数学模型。通过对论文预测模型中参数、数据和决策的合理分析和适当标定，结合大连市实际情况、未来出租车行业的发展方向和在综合交通系统中的定位，运用客运总量预测模型和出租车分担率模型做出适合本地实情的正确决策，维护出租车行业的健康发展。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of living standards, people have higher and higher requirements for public transport. At this time, the demand for taxis with the characteristics of speed and comfort just meets the needs of travelers at a high level. It has become an important supplement to the urban passenger transport system. As an important part of the urban passenger transportation system, how much share should the taxi take in the system, how to control the amount of the annual government, and how to make the city's passenger transport system more perfect? Better promote the taxi industry healthy and stable development, has become a more and more concerned topic. Dalian, as a city in the forefront of development, taxi industry in recent years has been relatively slow development, this paper takes Dalian as an example, through historical data to evaluate and revise the scale of taxi capacity in Dalian. However, with the completion of Dalian Metro, it is necessary to control the number of taxis according to this important influence factor in the future, to avoid the phenomenon of excessive quantity and high no-load rate after the completion of Dalian Metro. In this paper, the factors that affect the total amount of passenger transportation are analyzed one by one, then the future total amount of passenger transportation is predicted by using SPSS software, and then the different sharing rates of taxis before and after the completion of the subway are calculated by establishing the taxi share rate model. The reasonable capacity scale of taxi is calculated by the method of balance of supply and demand, then the capacity scale of taxi is evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward to the taxi industry. Now most city subway has been built or is about to be built, which will have a great impact on the taxi market. In the face of this situation, how to calculate the scale of taxi capacity more reasonably is very important. Most of the studies do not include the subway as an important factor in the model, which is not accurate for the reasonable calculation of taxi capacity, this paper adds this important influence factor to the model. Thus more reasonable calculation of taxi capacity scale. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the taxi industry in Dalian and to provide a scientific and reasonable mathematical model for the scale control of taxi capacity. Through reasonable analysis and proper calibration of parameters, data and decision-making in the prediction model of the paper, combined with the actual situation of Dalian City, the future development direction of taxi industry and its orientation in the integrated transportation system are discussed. In order to maintain the healthy development of taxi industry, the forecast model of total passenger transportation and the model of taxi share rate are used to make the correct decision suitable for the local situation.
【学位授予单位】：大连工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F572.7
本文编号：2324758
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of living standards, people have higher and higher requirements for public transport. At this time, the demand for taxis with the characteristics of speed and comfort just meets the needs of travelers at a high level. It has become an important supplement to the urban passenger transport system. As an important part of the urban passenger transportation system, how much share should the taxi take in the system, how to control the amount of the annual government, and how to make the city's passenger transport system more perfect? Better promote the taxi industry healthy and stable development, has become a more and more concerned topic. Dalian, as a city in the forefront of development, taxi industry in recent years has been relatively slow development, this paper takes Dalian as an example, through historical data to evaluate and revise the scale of taxi capacity in Dalian. However, with the completion of Dalian Metro, it is necessary to control the number of taxis according to this important influence factor in the future, to avoid the phenomenon of excessive quantity and high no-load rate after the completion of Dalian Metro. In this paper, the factors that affect the total amount of passenger transportation are analyzed one by one, then the future total amount of passenger transportation is predicted by using SPSS software, and then the different sharing rates of taxis before and after the completion of the subway are calculated by establishing the taxi share rate model. The reasonable capacity scale of taxi is calculated by the method of balance of supply and demand, then the capacity scale of taxi is evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward to the taxi industry. Now most city subway has been built or is about to be built, which will have a great impact on the taxi market. In the face of this situation, how to calculate the scale of taxi capacity more reasonably is very important. Most of the studies do not include the subway as an important factor in the model, which is not accurate for the reasonable calculation of taxi capacity, this paper adds this important influence factor to the model. Thus more reasonable calculation of taxi capacity scale. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the taxi industry in Dalian and to provide a scientific and reasonable mathematical model for the scale control of taxi capacity. Through reasonable analysis and proper calibration of parameters, data and decision-making in the prediction model of the paper, combined with the actual situation of Dalian City, the future development direction of taxi industry and its orientation in the integrated transportation system are discussed. In order to maintain the healthy development of taxi industry, the forecast model of total passenger transportation and the model of taxi share rate are used to make the correct decision suitable for the local situation.
【学位授予单位】：大连工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F572.7
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