海铁联运对港口腹地的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-11 21:10

【摘要】：海铁联运作为港口纵深腹地拓展的重要途径,其开通与运营对港口腹地范围及经济发展都会产生较大的影响。目前国内港口间面临着交叉腹地货源争揽激烈,而纵深腹地货源却无力承运的窘境,海铁联运作为港口中远距离货源运送的重要方式,开始受到越来越多的重视。本文基于此背景,研究海铁联运对以其为轴的港口腹地的影响,本文的内容主要包括以下几个方面：1)基于海铁联运和港口腹地区域发展的特点,借鉴“点—轴”系统理论在区域开发中的应用,揭示了以海铁联运为“轴”、轴线上的城镇节点为“点”的港口腹地“点—轴”作用机制及其空间结构演化过程；2)基于货主角度,以成本最小化为目标,构建海铁联运路径优选模型并利用改进的Dijkstra算法求解,对货源地经由港口进出口的优选路径进行分析得出基于海铁联运的货源地集合,即为以海铁联运为轴的港口腹地范围；3)在界定的腹地范围内选取适当的经济指标,通过对海铁联运运量序列与腹地指标变量序列进行平稳性检验、协整分析及Granger因果分析,揭示海铁联运对港口腹地区域经济的长期影响；通过对海铁联运与指标变量序列进行VAR模型分析、脉冲响应函数分析,揭示海铁联运对腹地区域经济的短期影响； 4)以大连港及哈大线海铁联运为实例,对大连港基于哈大线的港口腹地进行了界定,在界定的腹地范围内选取GDP、进出口总额、集装箱吞吐量等指标作为变量序列,将其与海铁联运运量序列进行时间序列分析,指出了海铁联运运量与指标变量间存在长期均衡的关系；对变量序列进行VAR模型分析及脉冲函数分析,指出在短期内变量序列间受随机扰动项冲击的影响。
[Abstract]:As an important way to expand the port's deep hinterland, its opening and operation will have a great influence on the port's hinterland scope and economic development. At present, the domestic ports are facing the fierce competition of cross-hinterland freight source, but the deep hinterland freight source is unable to carry the dilemma. As an important way of long-distance cargo transportation in the port, seaborne combined transport is getting more and more attention. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of seaborne transport on port hinterland with its axis. The contents of this paper mainly include the following aspects: 1) based on the characteristics of seaborne intermodal transport and port hinterland development, Referring to the application of "point-axis" system theory in regional development, this paper reveals the mechanism and spatial structure evolution process of port hinterland "point-axis" with seaborne combined transport as "axis" and urban node on axis as "point". 2) based on the view of the cargo owner and aiming at minimizing the cost, the optimal route selection model is constructed and solved by using the improved Dijkstra algorithm. Based on the analysis of the optimal route of the import and export of the source land through the port, it is concluded that the collection of the source sites based on the sea-rail transport is the hinterland range of the port with the sea-rail transport as the axis; 3) selecting appropriate economic indicators within the defined hinterland range, and carrying on the stationary test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis to the seaborne combined transport volume series and the hinterland index variable sequence. To reveal the long-term impact of sea-rail transport on the port hinterland regional economy; Through the VAR model analysis and impulse response function analysis of the seaborne combined transport and index variable sequence, this paper reveals the short-term influence of the seaborne combined transport on the hinterland regional economy. 4) the port hinterland of Dalian Port based on Hada Line is defined with the example of Dalian Port and Hada Railway combined Transport, and the indexes such as total import and export of GDP, and container throughput are selected as variable sequence in the defined hinterland. Based on the analysis of time series between sea and rail transport volume, it is pointed out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sea-rail transport volume and index variables. The VAR model analysis and pulse function analysis of variable sequence are carried out, and it is pointed out that in a short period of time variables are affected by the shock of random disturbance term.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552;F532

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