基于模糊理论的港口投资风险分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-11-25 15:26

【摘要】：在国民经济发展和建设中,港口起着举足轻重的作用。加强港口建设,是提升国家总体实力的主要内容。同时,港口建设项目又具有投资大、技术含量高的特点,在港口建设的过程中必然会遇到各种各样的风险。所以,港口的投资者如银行等都把港口建设的投资风险分析作为重点研究内容。研究发现,港口建设的风险是多方面的,由于自然条件、地质构造的不同和建设规模的变化,使得在港口建设的过程中存在有大量不确定性因素,而这些不确定性因素往往会引起预算大幅度超支,甚至有可能导致项目的失败。因此,对港口建设项目投资进行有效的风险分析是十分必要的。本文在查阅了大量文献和已有成果的基础上,首先对国内外港口建设风险管理的现状进行了较为系统和深入的研究；其次,从技术经济学的角度出发,把内部收益率作为风险变量因素的评判指标,对港口建设项目进行了经济评价和不确定性分析；再次,以不确定因素的敏感度系数作为风险变量因素的权重度量,建立了项目投资风险一级模糊评判模型,以专家主观评估的准确性程度作为各评价者的权重,构建了港口建设目投资风险二级模糊评判模型；最后,以大连港海洋红港区建设项目为例,验证了本文改进后的模糊综合评价模型的实用性和可行性。本文提出改进后模糊综合评判方法应用在港口建设项目投资决策中,使得港口建设项目投资风险的评定实现了定量化,更便于分析与评判,对于减少港口建设项目的投资风险,扩大经济效益,具有重要的现实意义和使用价值。
[Abstract]:In the national economy development and construction, the port plays a pivotal role. Strengthening port construction is the main content of improving the overall strength of the country. At the same time, the port construction project has the characteristics of large investment and high technology content, which will inevitably meet various risks in the course of port construction. Therefore, port investors, such as banks, take the risk analysis of port construction as the key research content. It is found that the risks of port construction are various. Due to the changes of natural conditions, geological structure and construction scale, there are a lot of uncertain factors in the process of port construction. These uncertainties often lead to large budget overruns, and may even lead to project failure. Therefore, it is very necessary to carry on the effective risk analysis to the port construction project investment. On the basis of consulting a large number of literatures and existing achievements, this paper firstly makes a systematic and in-depth study on the present situation of port construction risk management at home and abroad. Secondly, from the point of view of technical economics, taking the internal rate of return as the evaluation index of risk variables, the economic evaluation and uncertainty analysis of port construction projects are carried out. Thirdly, the sensitivity coefficient of uncertain factors is taken as the weight measure of risk variable factors, and the first-degree fuzzy evaluation model of project investment risk is established, and the accuracy of expert subjective evaluation is taken as the weight of each evaluator. A two-level fuzzy evaluation model of port construction investment risk is constructed. Finally, the feasibility and practicability of the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model are verified by taking the construction project of Haihong Port in Dalian Port as an example. In this paper, the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to the investment decision of port construction project, which makes the evaluation of investment risk of port construction project realize quantitative, and it is more convenient to analyze and judge, which can reduce the investment risk of port construction project. Expand economic benefit, have important realistic meaning and use value.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F283;F224

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