世界干散货海运需求与供给发展趋势分析
[Abstract]:Dry bulk shipping market is an important part of the world shipping market. Although, with the rapid development of container transport in recent years, the proportion of seaborne cargo containerization is increasing in many countries, in view of the fact that many bulk goods are important economic goods of a country, Therefore, bulk shipping, especially bulk cargo transport, is still one of the major modes of transport in a country or region, and other modes of transport are still unable to be fundamentally replaced. Dry bulk shipping market basically accords with the market structure of complete competition, so demand and supply are decisive factors. Firstly, this paper analyzes the source, route and characteristics of dry bulk shipping. This paper briefly introduces the composition of the world dry bulk shipping market from the aspects of the structure of the dry bulk carrier fleet, the structure of the ship age and the related market conditions, and makes a qualitative analysis of the demand and supply of the world dry bulk cargo shipping market as a whole. On the basis of this analysis, through the analysis of dry bulk shipping market demand and supply of historical statistics, using different forecasting models to fit, through the comparative analysis of each model, The combination forecasting model, which is close to its historical change trend and consistent with the future macro-judgment, is used to predict the development trend of demand and supply in the world dry bulk shipping market in the next ten years. After that, we use the improved supply-demand difference method to analyze the quantitative relationship between supply and demand, and predict the change of the quantitative relationship between supply and demand in the short term. The changes between supply and demand in the world dry bulk shipping market are reflected intuitively. In the future, the world dry bulk shipping market will still be in the state of oversupply and demand. Finally, according to the development trend of demand and supply of bulk cargo shipping in the world, this paper puts forward some management strategies and measures for China's shipping enterprises.
【学位授予单位】:大连海事大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F551;U695.27
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