基于信息实体模拟的火电运维项目财务决策仿真研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 09:50

本文选题：信息实体模拟　切入点：火电运维项目　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着电力体制改革方向的明朗和深入,发电市场将发生明显的变化,在“厂网分开,竞价上网”改革的形式下,火电运维项目市场竞争将非常激烈。改革以后的火电运维项目经营模式如何定位、电价如何确定、市场模式如何建立、如何争取电力市场确定以后的竞争,有实践经验的高级管理人员如何进行决策,诸多问题已经摆到了管理者的面前。要解决这些问题,仅靠经验,已不能满足眼前的发展需要,然而,利用现在的科技发展成果,展开各种方式的仿真研究,既省钱省力,又能满足现实的急需。因此在我国展开火电运维项目财务决策仿真的研究是客观的需要,也是现实的选择。研究科学的、合理的、适用的火电运维项目财务决策仿真的理论、方法以及开发相应的软件系统,是当今火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论研究的一个重要核心问题,也是目前国际上管理科学研究的前沿问题之一,对提高我国火力发电公司管理人员的决策水平、促进我国电力工业的发展有着重大的理论价值和实用价值。本文将火力发电项目分为三个子项目,包括火力发电设计项目、火力发电工程建设项目以及火力发电运行维护项目即火电运维项目。本文主要针对火电运维项目的财务决策进行研究。论文通过分析当前国内外企业经营发展模拟决策系统的研究现状,在进行文献研究、理论研究和实地调研的基础上,分析了对火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论与实现研究的必要性,介绍了当前学术界关于火电运维项目财务决策仿真理论研究的状况及不足,提出了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的概念和研究内容,分析了影响火电运维项目财务决策的主体、客体、媒体因素；利用粗糙集理论构建了火电运维项目财务决策仿真指标体系；设计了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的总体框架、具体框架和数据库。尤其是在决策模拟、系统论等基本理论的指导下,为了实现信息实体化的目标,本文研发了火电运维项目财务决策仿真实物沙盘系统。以容量和电量订单变动为手段,建立了虚拟的由垄断到完全竞争的“电力及电煤交易中心”。用实物形态表现出了电力生产的过程。在研发成功的火电运维项目财务决策仿真实物沙盘系统的基础上,首次利用决策模拟原理开发具有火电运维项目特色的、适用于火力发电公司高级管理人员决策的软件系统。建立了火电运维项目财务决策仿真信度和效度指标体系,对火电运维项目财务决策仿真进行了信度和效度验证。本文主要创新点： 1.提出了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的概念,利用粗糙集原理对火电运维项目的决策主体、客体、媒体的指标进行属性约简,构建了火电运维项目财务决策仿真的指标体系。 2.给出了火电运维项目管理人员进行财务决策的辅助决策方法。为火电运维项目管理人员在电力交易、电煤交易以及投资等重大财务决策提供参考,使其决策得到优化。 3.建立了虚拟的“电力交易中心”与“电煤交易中心”。以实物形态模拟出了电力采购与电煤采购的市场化交易,并研发出了火电运维项目财务决策的实物模拟和软件仿真系统。 4.在改进的熵权法原理的基础上,建立了火电运维项目财务仿真决策系统的经济效益综合评价模型,开发了火电运维项目财务仿真决策经济效益综合评价系统。
[Abstract]:With the development of electric power system reform direction is clear and thorough, power market will undergo significant changes, in the "separation of plant and network, price reform, operation and maintenance of thermal power project market competition will be very fierce. How to locate the management mode after the reform of the power operation project, how to determine the price, how to build the market model, how to fight for the future how to determine the power market competition, senior management personnel with practical experience to make decisions, many problems has been placed in front of managers. To solve these problems, relying on the experience, can not meet the needs of the immediate development however, by now the development of science and technology achievements, simulation of the deployment of various ways, both to save money and effort, and can meet the practical need. So research in our country started the financial decision-making power simulation operation project is the objective need, is also the realistic choice of science, Reasonable, power operation project financial decision-making simulation for the theory, method and development of the corresponding software system is an important core problem in today's power operation project financial decision simulation theory research, is currently on the international frontiers of management science, to improve the level of decision-making power management company in China and promote the development of China's electric power industry is of great theoretical value and practical value.
In this paper, the thermal power project is divided into three sub projects, including thermal power design project, thermal power engineering construction project and thermal power operation and maintenance project, namely thermal power operation and maintenance project.
By analyzing the current research situation of domestic and international business development simulation decision system, in the literature research, theoretical research and field research, analysis of the thermal power maintenance project financial decision-making simulation theory and necessity of research, introduces the current academic circles on the thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation theory research status and the insufficiency, proposed the concept of financial decision-making power operation simulation project and research contents, analysis of the impact of the main financial decision-making power operation project object, media factors; using the theory to construct the financial decision-making index system of thermal power project operation simulation of rough set; design the overall framework of the simulation of financial decision of power operation project, concrete framework and database especially in the decision-making simulation, the basic theory of system theory, under the guidance of the entity in order to realize the information of the target, this paper research The thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation system. The sand capacity and energy variation orders as a means to establish a virtual complete competition from monopoly to the electricity and coal trading center. With the physical form showing the process of power production. Based on the successful development of the operation and maintenance of thermal power project financial decision simulation sand table system on the first use of decision simulation principle development of thermal power operation project characteristic, the software system is suitable for the senior management of thermal power company decision-making. The thermal power maintenance project financial decision simulation reliability and validity of the index system, the simulation of financial decision of power operation project of reliability and validity.
The main innovation points in this paper are:
1., the concept of financial decision simulation for thermal power operation and maintenance project is put forward. Rough set theory is applied to attribute reduction to the decision-making subject, object and media index of thermal power operation and maintenance project, and the index system of financial decision-making simulation for power plant operation and maintenance project is constructed.
2., the assistant decision-making method of financial decision-making for thermal power operation and maintenance project managers is given. It can provide references for thermal power operation and maintenance project managers in major financial decisions such as power trading, electricity and coal trading and investment, and optimize their decisions.
3., a virtual "power trading center" and "electric coal trading center" have been established. In the form of physical form, the market transaction of power purchase and electric coal purchase has been simulated, and the physical simulation and software simulation system of the financial decision-making of thermal power operation and maintenance project has been developed.
4., based on the improved entropy weight method, a comprehensive evaluation model of the economic performance of the financial simulation decision system of thermal power operation and maintenance project is established, and a comprehensive evaluation system for the financial simulation of the thermal power operation and maintenance project is developed.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.72;F426.61

【参考文献】