互动用电模式下的智能电网运营风险传递模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 18:20

本文选题：互动用电模式　切入点：吸收马尔科夫链　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以智能电网环境下电网公司与发电公司以及电力消费用户之间基于电力流、信息流和资金流的互动用电模式为研究对象,借助于风险元传递理论,研究互动用电模式为智能电网运营带来的新型风险元以及这些风险元沿着电力流、信息流和资金流的传递路径和传递效应。首先文章在对智能电网信息系统业务流程进行分析的基础上,将业务执行过程中传递的信息视为风险元,将业务执行的流程方向视为风险元传递路径,提出了基于吸收马尔科夫链的智能电网信息安全风险传递评价模型。该模型针对智能电网信息系统不同等级的安全故障状态量化智能电网信息安全风险,为互动用电模式下的智能电网信息安全风险评估提供了更为完善可行的计算方法。该风险评估模型借助于吸收马尔科夫链定量计算智能电网信息系统业务执行过程中各项任务的风险指标以及其在各安全故障状态的概率分布,通过评估可以确定智能电网信息系统业务执行过程中的高风险任务。其次文章分析了智能电网互动用电模式下实行峰谷分时电价时的用户需求反应以及其导致的电网公司售电收入风险元和购电成本风险元,借助于需求价格弹性推导出峰谷分时电价、合同市场购电比例、用户电力需求量、现货市场电价的不确定性通过关系型风险传递路径共同导致了电网公司收益的不确定性,其中峰谷分时电价将通过用户需求价格弹性影响用户电力需求量,进而影响现货市场电价。最后文章从提高智能电网运行安全性、资金安全性和信息安全性的角度出发,为建立高效安全经济的智能电网互动用电运营机制提出若干项建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the interactive power consumption mode between grid companies and power generation companies and consumers in smart grid environment based on power flow, information flow and capital flow is taken as the research object, and the risk element transfer theory is used. To study the new risk elements for the operation of smart grid based on the interactive power consumption model and these risk elements along the power flow, Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the business process of smart grid information system, the information transmitted in the process of business execution is regarded as a risk element. Treat the process direction of business execution as a risk element delivery path, This paper presents an information security risk transfer evaluation model for smart grid based on absorbing Markov chain, which quantifies the information security risk of smart grid according to different security fault states of smart grid information system. It provides a more perfect and feasible calculation method for information security risk assessment of smart grid under interactive power consumption mode. The risk assessment model quantitatively calculates intelligent grid information system service execution with the aid of absorbing Markov chain. The risk indicators of each task in the process and its probability distribution in each security failure state, The high risk tasks in the process of smart grid information system service execution can be determined by evaluation. Secondly, the paper analyzes the response of users' demand when implementing peak-valley time-sharing pricing in the interactive mode of smart grid and its causes. The risk element of the power sale income and the cost of purchasing electricity of the power grid company, With the help of demand price elasticity, the uncertainty of peak and valley timesharing price, contract market power purchase ratio, customer electricity demand, spot market price uncertainty leads to the uncertainty of power grid company's income through the relational risk transmission path. The peak-valley time-sharing price will influence the customer's electricity demand through the price elasticity of customer's demand, and then affect the spot market's electricity price. Finally, this paper starts from the point of view of improving the security of smart grid operation, fund security and information security. Some suggestions are put forward for the establishment of an efficient, safe and economical operation mechanism for interactive power consumption in smart grid.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F416.61

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