小样本、贫信息背景下的民用飞机成本估算模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 10:17

本文选题：成本估算　切入点：民用飞机　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：民用飞机研制是一项复杂的系统工程，具有研制周期长、复杂程度高、技术难度大、不确定因素多等特点，决定了民用飞机研制过程需要大量的资金投入。然而，民用飞机研制的成功，不仅仅体现为技术的成就，更需要商业和运营的成功，因此，有效地控制研制成本成为其中至关重要的一环。本文以民用飞机研制成本估算为主要内容开展研究，，构建民用飞机成本因素指标体系，并重点构建研制阶段和小批量生产阶段的民用飞机成本估算模型。首先，在系统总结国内外最新成本估算方法的基础上，深入剖析了民用飞机研制过程并建立了民用飞机成本关键特征指标体系，采用灰色关联分析和自相关性方法选择特征参量。其次，结合调研数据、空缺数据插值、DAPCA IV成本估算模型和偏最小二乘法生成民用飞机研制阶段和小批生产阶段的成本数据；基于GM(0,N)模型和BP神经网络构建了民用飞机机体研制成本估算模型；基于偏最小二乘方法构建机体研制成本估算模型，考虑其他特征参量不变的情况下，构建了民用飞机机体研制各影响因素与研制成本的函数关系，运用所求得的函数关系分析了各影响因素的敏感性。第三，重点针对飞机发动机系统采购成本进行研究，构建基于遗传算法的发动机研制成本综合估算模型；通过增加多个说明性变量，改进Rand公司的DAPCA IV成本估算模型，通过反复计算、验算和相关性分析，得到了民用飞机发动机生产成本、机体工时成本、材料成本等关键指标的修正DAPCAIV成本估算模型。并基于实际数据进行实证分析，验证了所构建模型的精度与有效性。最后，运用Matlab中的GUI界面设计初步开发了民用飞机成本估算系统，该系统可以初步实现成本数据生成、民机飞机研制成本估算、小批生产成本估算等模块功能。研究成果对我国民用飞机研制成本估算和成本管理工作具有一定的应用价值。
[Abstract]:The development of civil aircraft is a complex system engineering, with the characteristics of long development cycle, high complexity, high technical difficulty and many uncertain factors, which determines that the development process of civil aircraft needs a lot of capital investment. The success of civil aircraft development is not only the achievement of technology, but also the success of business and operation. Therefore, it is very important to control the development cost effectively. In this paper, the cost estimation of civil aircraft is studied, the index system of civil aircraft cost is constructed, and the cost estimation model of civil aircraft is constructed in the development stage and small batch production stage. On the basis of systematically summarizing the latest cost estimation methods at home and abroad, the development process of civil aircraft is deeply analyzed and the key characteristic index system of civil aircraft cost is established. The method of grey correlation analysis and autocorrelation is used to select the characteristic parameters. Secondly, the cost data of civil aircraft development stage and small batch production stage are generated by interpolation of DAPCA IV cost estimation model and partial least square method combined with investigation data. Based on GM0N) model and BP neural network, the cost estimation model of civil aircraft airframe is constructed, and the model based on partial least square method is constructed, and other characteristic parameters are not changed. The functional relationship between the factors influencing the development of civil aircraft airframe and the development cost is constructed, and the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed by using the obtained functional relationship. Thirdly, the research is focused on the purchasing cost of the aircraft engine system. A comprehensive cost estimation model of engine development based on genetic algorithm is constructed, and the cost estimation model of DAPCA IV of Rand Company is improved by adding several explanatory variables, and the cost estimation model of DAPCA IV is improved by repeated calculation, checking calculation and correlation analysis. The modified DAPCAIV cost estimation model for the key indexes of civil aircraft engine production cost, airframe man-hour cost and material cost is obtained. Based on the actual data, the accuracy and validity of the proposed model are verified. The cost estimation system of civil aircraft is developed with the GUI interface design in Matlab. The system can generate cost data and estimate the development cost of civil aircraft. The research results have certain application value to the cost estimation and cost management of civil aircraft development in China.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.72;F426.5

【参考文献】