中国对外贸易成本的测算及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-26 09:34

本文选题：对外贸易成本　切入点：测算　出处：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放至今三十多年，中国创造了举世瞩目的经济奇迹，毋庸置疑的是对外贸易做出了巨大贡献。当各国经济遭遇2008年全球金融危机侵扰、市场需求衰退时，中国贸易额未能保持稳步增长，2009年中国贸易总额下挫。虽然2010年贸易总额恢复增长，，但是全球金融危机的阴霾仍未散去以及未来全球经济发展存在的不确定性，中国需要继续探索未来对外贸易增长的动力。在呼吁转变贸易发展方式的同时，本文选择了降低对外贸易成本这一视角。本文首先梳理了对外贸易成本的概念、构成以及国内外学者对其测算方法的研究。直接法测算对外贸易成本由于数据可获得性难度高，且不准确。因此国内外学者均采用间接法测算。文中推导了目前最新的对外贸易成本的测算模型——基于一般均衡理论推导的加入了多边贸易成本的改进的引力模型。接着运用中国1993-2010年与15个主要贸易伙伴的贸易数据测算了中国对外贸易成本。之后定性分析了影响对外贸易成本的五类因素，分别是地理因素、经济规模因素、历史因素、制度因素和基础因素。接着根据中国对外贸易实际情况，选择距离、是否拥有共同边界、两国（地区）关税水平、人均GDP差额的绝对值、是否使用共同语言、是否加入WTO、是否签订自由贸易协定、两国（地区）互联网人数八个变量对中国对外贸易成本进行多元回归分析。在测算对外贸易成本部分得出的结论是：1993-2010年间中国对外贸易成本呈下降趋势。又将贸易伙伴以距离、收入、区域不同划分，发现中国与距离越远、收入越低的国家（地区）间的贸易成本越大；中国与东亚地区的对外贸易成本最低，其次是欧美国家，最后是金砖国家。在影响对外贸易成本的因素分析中，除了两国关税水平变量外，其他七个变量对中国对外贸易成本的影响都是显著的，分别是距离越近、拥有共同边界、人均GDP差额的绝对值越大、使用共同语言、加入WTO、签订了自由贸易协定、两国互联网普及率越高，贸易成本越小。最后根据实证分析的结论给中国对外贸易发展提出了适当建议。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China has created a remarkable economic miracle, and there is no doubt that foreign trade has made a great contribution. When the economies of various countries suffered from the global financial crisis in 2008 and the market demand declined, China's trade volume has failed to maintain steady growth, with its total trade volume falling in 2009. Although trade volume returned to growth in 2010, the haze of the global financial crisis has not dissipated and uncertainty about the future of the global economy exists. China needs to continue to explore the motive force of foreign trade growth in the future. While calling for changing the mode of trade development, this paper chooses the angle of view of reducing the cost of foreign trade. This article first combs the concept, the constitution and the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the foreign trade cost. The direct method is difficult to calculate the foreign trade cost because of the difficulty of data availability. Therefore, scholars both at home and abroad use indirect method to calculate the cost of foreign trade. This paper deduces the latest calculation model of foreign trade cost, which is based on the general equilibrium theory and adds the improved gravitational model of multilateral trade cost. Then using China's trade data from 1993 to 2010 with 15 major trading partners to calculate the cost of China's foreign trade, and then qualitatively analyzing the five kinds of factors that affect the cost of foreign trade. They are geographical factors, economic scale factors, historical factors, institutional factors and basic factors. Then according to the actual situation of China's foreign trade, choose distance, whether there is a common border, the level of tariffs between the two countries (regions), The absolute value of per capita GDP difference, whether to use common language, whether to join WTO, whether to sign a free trade agreement, and eight variables of Internet population in the two countries (regions) are used to analyze the foreign trade cost of China. In the part of calculating the cost of foreign trade, the conclusion is that the cost of China's foreign trade shows a downward trend between 1993 and 2010. Again, by dividing the trading partners according to distance, income, and different regions, we find that the farther the distance between China and China, The lower the income, the greater the cost of trade between the countries (regions). The foreign trade cost between China and East Asia is the lowest, followed by the European and American countries, and finally the BRICS countries. In the analysis of the factors affecting the cost of foreign trade, In addition to the tariff level variables of the two countries, the other seven variables have a significant impact on China's foreign trade costs. The closer they are, the closer they share the common border, the greater the absolute value of the per capita GDP difference, and the use of the common language. After joining WTO, free trade agreement was signed. The higher the popularization rate of Internet, the lower the trade cost. Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, some suggestions are put forward for the development of China's foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F740.45

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