基于自由现金流量折现模型的三元股份价值评估

发布时间：2018-03-30 18:40

本文选题：价值评估　切入点：自由现金流量折现模型　出处：《华东交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：受益于我国经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高，中国乳制品行业的发展也是蒸蒸日上。特别是改革开放以来，我国奶类生产量以每年两位数的增长幅度迅速增加，已逐渐吸引了世界的眼光。然而，快速发展的背后，，投资者和管理者该如何正确地评价乳企的真正价值呢？这就需要对其进行合理的价值评估。因此，本文选取了三元股份作为乳企价值评估的代表进行案例研究。首先，比较了价值评估常用的三种评估方法，选择了实用性和合理性较好的自由现金流量折现法作为评估的工具；其次，围绕三元股份近几年的发展状况，对其所处的宏观环境和微观环境进行了分析，以便准确地进行价值评估，然后通过具体数据的分析和预测，运用自由现金流量折现模型得出了三元股份的价值；再次，将估值的结果与目前市值作比较，并运用市净率法对其结果进行验证，得出三元股份价值被低估的结论，从而也说明了自由现金流量折现法估值的合理性；最后，研究了三元股份提升价值的驱动因素，并提出相关建议。本文根据自由现金流量折现模型得出的价值评估结果，多方面地分析三元股份价值被低估的原因以验证评估的合理性和正确性，并从管理体制、产品结构、销售渠道和品牌形象四个方面分析了三元股份未来价值提升的途径，从而在理论和实践上都将具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:Thanks to the rapid development of Chinese economy and the improvement of people's living standard, the development of Chinese dairy industry is booming.Especially since the reform and opening up, the dairy production in China has been increasing rapidly by double digits every year, which has gradually attracted the eyes of the world.However, behind the rapid development, how should investors and managers correctly evaluate the true value of dairy companies?This needs to carry on the reasonable value appraisal to it.Therefore, this paper selects three-yuan shares as the representative of dairy enterprise value evaluation for a case study.Firstly, the paper compares three kinds of valuation methods, and chooses the discounted free cash flow method, which has good practicability and rationality, as the evaluation tool. Secondly, it focuses on the development of the three shares in recent years.The macro-environment and micro-environment are analyzed in order to accurately evaluate the value, and then through the analysis and prediction of specific data, the value of the three-way shares is obtained by using the discounted free cash flow model.The result of valuation is compared with that of market value at present, and the result is verified by the method of price-to-book ratio, and the conclusion that the value of ternary shares is undervalued is obtained, which also shows the rationality of the valuation of discounted free cash flow.This paper studies the driving factors of three-yuan shares to enhance their value, and puts forward some relevant suggestions.Based on the value evaluation results obtained from the discounted free cash flow model, this paper analyzes the reasons why the value of ternary shares is undervalued in many ways to verify the rationality and correctness of the evaluation, and from the management system, product structure,Four aspects of sales channel and brand image have analyzed the ways to enhance the future value of ternary shares, which will have certain practical significance in theory and practice.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.82;F406.7

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