基于财务数据的农业股票投资价值研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 11:13

本文选题：农业股股价　切入点：净资产收益率　出处：《新疆农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：文章在国内外研究动态述评基础上,以农业类上市公司股票价格为研究对象,设计了研究思路和研究方案,梳理了股票定价理论基础,分析了我国农业类上市公司的现状以及影响股价变动的关键财务指标。通过对农业类上市公司股价与具体微观变量关联性的分析,力图发现影响农业类上市公司股票价格的核心财务指标因素,为降低农业类上市公司的行业风险及政府决策提供参考。文章采取现代计量经济方法与数理统计方法开展了研究,着力于实证角度。选取A01农业板块上市公司为研究对象,样本区间为2007第一季度至2013年第四季度,有364组观测样本数据,建立计量回归模型定量分析农业股股价变动在财务指标上的表现。通过描述性统计发现盈余价格比与净资产收益率同向变化趋势明显,进而建立一个净资产收益率作为解释变量,盈余价格比(市盈率的倒数)为被解释变量的面板数据模型,对农业类股票股价波动规律进行了验证研究。研究结果表明：盈余价格比与净资产收益率呈正相关关系。根据盈余价格比定义以及上述实证结果,得到结论：每股净资产、净资产收益率与股价变动有显著关系。然后以农业板块股票市场为研究对象,采用灰色关联度法找出与股票价格相关联的财务指标,并分别建立了对数线性模型与截面数据回归模型检验了每股收益、净资产收益率与股价的关联性,以及每股净资产对股票价格的基础作用。最后以2013年的最新数据再次对农业上市公司股票投资价值规律进行验证。文章得到的主要结论如下： (1)在A股市农业板市场,农业上市公司的盈余价格比与净资产收益率具有明显的关联性,并且经过推导得出,农业上市公司股价和业绩指标以及每股净资产相关联。 (2)股票价格与业绩关联性显著,公司财务因素特别是每股收益,对于股价有着极强的解释能力。 (3)经过建立计量回归模型检验,证实每股净资产是股票价格的价值基础,是影响股票价格的内在因素。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the review of domestic and foreign research trends, taking the stock price of agricultural listed companies as the research object, this paper designs the research ideas and research schemes, and combs the theoretical basis of stock pricing. This paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural listed companies in China and the key financial indicators that affect the stock price changes. Through the analysis of the relationship between the stock price of agricultural listed companies and the specific micro variables, This paper tries to find out the key financial index factors that affect the stock price of agricultural listed companies, and provides a reference for reducing the industry risk and government decision of agricultural listed companies. This paper adopts the modern econometric method and mathematical statistics method to carry out the research, focusing on the empirical point of view. The A01 agricultural plate listed company is selected as the research object. The sample interval is from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2013. With 364 sets of observed sample data, a quantitative regression model was established to quantitatively analyze the performance of agricultural stock price changes on financial indicators. Through descriptive statistics, it was found that the trend of the change of earnings price ratio and net asset return was obvious. Then we establish a panel data model with ROE as the explanatory variable and the ratio of earnings to price (the reciprocal of P / E ratio) as the explained variable. Based on the definition of earnings price ratio and the above empirical results, the results show that the earnings price ratio is positively correlated with the return on net assets. There is a significant relationship between the return on net assets and the change of stock price. Then taking the stock market of agricultural plate as the research object, we find out the financial index related to the stock price by using the grey correlation degree method. The logarithmic linear model and cross-section data regression model are established to test the correlation between earnings per share, return on net assets and stock price. And the basic effect of net assets per share on the stock price. Finally, with the latest data of 2013, the paper verifies the law of stock investment value of agricultural listed companies again. The main conclusions are as follows:. 1) in the agricultural market of A share market, the earnings price ratio of agricultural listed companies has obvious correlation with the return on net assets, and it is deduced that the share price, performance index and net assets per share of agricultural listed companies are related. The relationship between stock price and performance is significant, and corporate financial factors, especially earnings per share, have a strong explanatory power for stock price. 3) it is proved that the net assets per share is the value basis of the stock price and the internal factor that affects the stock price after the establishment of the econometric regression model.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F302.6

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