HY类项目投资决策中现金流及折现率估测研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 10:56

本文选题：化学制剂类医药项目　切入点：投资决策　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：医药行业长期以来保持较高增速，在国民经济中占据重要位置。当前在中国医药健康产业政策利好,行业新版GMP改造的背景下，，医药龙头生产企业纷纷进行新生产基地的投资和建设。然而，通过调查研究发现，现实中估测化学制剂类医药项目（本文简写为：HY类项目）现金流和折现率的方法很多是不正确的，存在非理性行为。通过查阅文献，暂时还没有发现针对HY类项目投资决策变量估测的研究。因此，本文基于行为财务理论对HY类项目投资决策中现金流及折现率的估测进行研究，具有重大的现实意义。本文首先采用调研访谈法，调查了现实中10个医药项目，访谈了15位广州某大型医药集团的决策部门、财务分析部门及实施部门的相关人员，收集了HY类项目的投资特点、风险的具体表现、决策指标的选择、现金流量构成及估测方法、折现率取值及依据等情况，总结归纳出现实中现金流及资本成本估测过程中的非理性行为。然后通过对比分析选择更具操作性和更高准确性的现金流估测方法和资本成本估测方法，运用直接法设计出HY类项目现金流估测表，基于BAPM估测出HY类项目的资本成本。最后将设计出的HY类项目现金流估测表应用于BS医药项目的现金流估测，利用估测出来的资本成本，计算出BS医药项目的净现值及内部报酬率，并与传统方法计算结果进行对比分析。本文通过研究发现： HY类项目的8种具体风险属于非系统性风险，但对项目影响较大，可通过现金流调整来体现其对价值的影响；HY类项目现金流估测过程中常见的有9种非理性行为，资本成本估测过程中常见的有3种非理性行为。本文还设计出HY类项目期初、期中、期末的现金流估测表，方便其他项目参考使用。本文还发现，现实中HY类项目折现率的取值集中在10%-15%这个范围；而本文基于BAPM估测出HY类项目贝塔为0.5530，从而得出HY类项目资本成本为8.93%，与研究团队的其他成员研究结论较为一致，可作为HY类项目投资决策中的折现率。本文最后将设计出的HY类项目现金流估测表和资本成本的计算结果应用于BS医药项目，利用EXCEL的NPV和IRR函数计算出BS医药项目的净现值为26291万元，项目的内部报酬率为13.19%。与传统方法的计算结果进行对比，发现由于传统方法折现率取值为12%，包含了非系统性风险；以及将利息支出7030万元计入增量现金流，期末未考虑回收无形资产终结值3762万元的增量现金流，因此导致净现值与本文计算结果差异32803万元，差异率为56.59%。由此可见，由于传统方法存在非理性行为，导致其计算结果与本文方法的计算结果差异较大，因此对估测HY类项目的现金流及折现率的传统方法进行改进是非常有必要的。综上所述，本文得到更符合现实情况及更具操作性的HY类项目现金流及资本成本的估测方法，可为其他HY类项目投资决策提供参考，以提高决策质量。
[Abstract]:Pharmaceutical industry has maintained a high growth rate for a long time and occupies an important position in the national economy.At present, under the background of the favorable policy of Chinese medicine and health industry and the revamping of the new GMP, leading pharmaceutical production enterprises have invested and constructed the new production base one after another.However, through investigation and research, it is found that many methods of estimating cash flow and discount rate of chemical pharmaceutical projects are incorrect and irrational.By consulting the literature, there is no research on the estimation of investment decision variables for HY projects.Therefore, based on behavioral finance theory, this paper studies the estimation of cash flow and discount rate in investment decision-making of HY projects, which is of great practical significance.In this paper, 10 medical projects are investigated by using the method of investigation and interview, and 15 people from the decision-making department, the financial analysis department and the implementation department of a large pharmaceutical group in Guangzhou are interviewed, and the investment characteristics of the HY project are collected.The concrete performance of risk, the choice of decision index, the composition of cash flow and the method of estimating cash flow, the value and basis of discount rate and so on, are summed up to sum up the irrational behavior in the process of estimating cash flow and capital cost in reality.Then the cash flow estimation method and the capital cost estimation method, which are more operable and more accurate, are compared and analyzed. The cash flow estimation table of HY project is designed by direct method, and the capital cost of HY project is estimated based on BAPM.Finally, the HY project cash flow estimation table is used to estimate the cash flow of BS pharmaceutical project, and the net present value and internal rate of return of BS pharmaceutical project are calculated by using the estimated capital cost.The results are compared with the traditional method.In this paper, we find that the 8 kinds of specific risks of HY project are non-systemic risks, but they have great influence on the project.There are 9 kinds of irrational behaviors in the process of cash flow estimation of HY projects and 3 kinds of irrational behaviors in the process of capital cost estimation.This paper also designs a cash flow estimation table for HY projects at the beginning, middle and end of the project, which is convenient for other projects to use.This paper also finds that in reality, the discount rate of HY projects is in the range of 10- 15%.Based on BAPM, the beta of HY project is estimated to be 0.5530, and the capital cost of HY project is 8.93, which is consistent with the conclusion of other members of the research team, and can be used as the discount rate in the investment decision of HY project.In the end, the paper applies the cash flow estimate and the calculation result of the capital cost of the HY project to the BS medicine project. The net present value of the BS medicine project is 262.91 million yuan by using the NPV and IRR function of EXCEL, and the internal rate of return of the project is 13.19 million yuan.Compared with the traditional method, it is found that the discount rate of the traditional method is 12, including non-systemic risk, and the interest expense of 70.3 million yuan is included in the incremental cash flow.No incremental cash flow of 37.62 million yuan is taken into account at the end of the period, so the difference between the net present value and the result of this paper is 328.03 million yuan, and the difference rate is 56.59 yuan.Therefore, it is necessary to improve the traditional method to estimate the cash flow and discount rate of HY projects because of the irrationality behavior of the traditional method, which leads to the difference between the calculation results and the results of the present method.To sum up, this paper obtains more realistic and more operable estimation method of cash flow and capital cost of HY project, which can provide reference for other HY project investment decision and improve the quality of decision making.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.72;F426.72

【参考文献】