公允价值盈余预测能力及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 19:48

本文选题：公允价值 + 盈余预测能力　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：公允价值计量是我国会计准则的核心内容，也是与国际会计准则趋同的一个重要标志。美国财务会计准则委员会在SFAC NO.2中全面阐释了会计信息的质量特征，其中决策有用性是质量的最高层次。公允价值面向未来，有助于投资者预测未来盈余，具有决策有用性。但由于公允价值所具有的公允性、动态性和估计性等特征，使其在实际运用中会受到管理者个人私利的影响，成为盈余管理的手段，可靠性将降低，，从而影响了公允价值的盈余预测能力。而管理层实施盈余管理行为时会受到债务契约、市场化进程及公司治理的制约。因此，我国采用公允价值计量后，会计信息是否具有盈余预测能力，进而提供决策有用性信息，以及债务契约、市场化进程和公司治理又是否影响公允价值盈余预测能力，已成为我国会计改革亟待研究的重要问题。本文应用会计目标理论、计量观与净盈余理论、全面收益与资产负债观及会计信息质量特征理论探讨公允价值计量的理论，为研究公允价值盈余预测能力奠定理论基础，然后通过债务契约理论和委托代理理论，从影响公允价值可靠性角度，对债务契约、市场化进程和公司治理影响公允价值盈余预测能力进行理论分析。在此基础上，基于资产负债表法和利润表法，以2009-2012年沪深两市采用公允价值计量的上市公司为总体样本，采用多元线性回归分析方法研究了公允价值采用程度对盈余预测能力的影响；并将总体样本分别按照借款比重、市场化指数、公司治理综合因子得分的中位数分组，采用分组回归分析方法研究了债务契约、市场化进程和公司治理是否对公允价值盈余预测能力产生影响。研究发现，公允价值采用程度越高，其盈余预测能力越强；公允价值变动损益与未来盈余显著正相关；其他综合收益与未来盈余不相关。这基本表明了公允价值具有盈余预测能力，可以向投资者等利益相关者提供决策有用性信息。债务契约、市场化进程和公司治理均对公允价值盈余预测能力有显著影响。借款比重越低、市场化进程越高、公司治理水平越高，公允价值采用程度与盈余预测能力的相关性越强，公允价值变动损益的盈余预测能力越强；但其他综合收益只有在市场化水平高时才具有盈余预测能力。基于上述研究，为提高公允价值的盈余预测能力，本文进一步提出了完善有关公允价值计量的准则、加快市场化进程、完善上市公司内部治理结构、加强外部监管作用等政策性建议。
[Abstract]:Fair value measurement is the core content of Chinese accounting standards and an important symbol of convergence with international accounting standards. The American Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has comprehensively explained the quality characteristics of accounting information in SFAC NO.2, in which decision-making usefulness is the highest level of quality. Fair value is future-oriented and helpful for investors to predict future earnings. However, due to the characteristics of fair value, such as fairness, dynamics and estimation, it will be affected by the personal interests of managers in practical use, and become a means of earnings management, and its reliability will be reduced. Thus affecting the fair value of earnings forecasting ability. However, the performance of earnings management is restricted by debt contract, marketization and corporate governance. Therefore, after adopting fair value measurement, whether accounting information has the ability to predict earnings, and then provide useful information for decision-making, as well as debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance, will affect the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. Accounting reform in China has become an important issue to be studied. This paper discusses the theory of fair value measurement by applying the theory of accounting objective, the theory of measurement and net earnings, the view of total income, assets and liabilities, and the theory of accounting information quality, which lays a theoretical foundation for the study of the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. Then through debt contract theory and principal-agent theory, from the perspective of influencing fair value reliability, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of debt contract, market-oriented process and corporate governance influence fair value earnings prediction ability. On this basis, based on the balance sheet method and income statement method, taking the listed companies with fair value measurement in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2009-2012 as the overall sample, The influence of the degree of fair value adoption on earnings forecasting ability is studied by using multiple linear regression analysis, and the total samples are grouped according to the proportion of loan, market-oriented index and median score of corporate governance comprehensive factor, respectively. Group regression analysis is used to study whether debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance influence the ability of forecasting fair value earnings. It is found that the higher the use of fair value, the stronger the ability to predict earnings; the positive correlation between the change of fair value and future earnings; the other comprehensive income is not related to future earnings. This basically shows that fair value has the ability to predict earnings and can provide useful information for investors and other stakeholders. Debt contract, marketization process and corporate governance all have significant influence on fair value earnings forecasting ability. The lower the proportion of borrowing, the higher the marketization process, the higher the corporate governance level, the stronger the correlation between the degree of fair value adoption and earnings forecasting ability, the stronger the earnings forecasting ability of fair value change profit or loss. However, other comprehensive returns only in the high level of marketization to have the ability to forecast earnings. Based on the above research, in order to improve the ability of earnings prediction of fair value, this paper further proposes to improve the standards of fair value measurement, accelerate the process of marketization, and improve the internal governance structure of listed companies. Strengthen the role of external supervision and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F233;F275;F271

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