回归分析下的经营决策在澄西船厂的应用研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 18:50

本文选题：生产决策 + 船舶企业　；参考：《江苏科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：船舶工业具有强大的综合性,可以通过上下游行业的联系对国民经济的发展产生巨大的推动作用。根本原因在于船舶工业的核心技术包含了大型结构件的加工装配和对其他多种学科的综合应用。船舶工业涉及到的集成技术具有很强的延展性,除了能够涉及制造船舶和船用设备,还可以扩展到非船舶工业中去,满足国民经济其他方面的发展。但受欧洲债务危机的拖累,船只的需求下降,加上船舶行业产能过剩现象的突出,国际航运业遭受了严重的打击。面对造船业利润下降、成本上升、订单减少的局面,高利润的订单已经越来越少,低利润甚至负利润的订单则逐日增多,利润的缩减导致船企不得不另寻出路,扭转过去仅仅依靠毛利率来选择订单的思路,将视野投向与成本联系更为紧密的边际贡献率。本文借助企业经营决策理论和变动成本法理论,以回归分析为基础构建了订单定价模型,与特殊订单的生产决策相结合,将澄西船厂作为研究实例,对订单定价模型和特殊订单的生产决策在澄西船厂的应用等内容进行了深入研究。通过对相关成本理论概念和SPSS回归分析方法的介绍,对船舶制造成本进行分析,并运用SPSS软件对成本数据和订单定价数据进行逐步回归分析和验证,从而推出船舶企业的订单定价模型。结合订单定价模型与边际贡献的相关理论,对船舶企业的特殊订单进行判定,详尽分析出特殊订单的生产决策模型。在此基础上,结合澄西船厂的生产经营数据,对订单定价模型和特殊订单生产决策模型在澄西船厂的应用进行了实例分析。借此希望可以对相关船舶企业在订单生产决策上提供一些理论支持,减少订单选择的困难,改变企业的经营困境。
[Abstract]:The shipbuilding industry has a strong synthesis, which can promote the development of national economy through the connection of upstream and downstream industries. The fundamental reason is that the core technology of shipbuilding industry includes the machining and assembling of large structural parts and the comprehensive application of other disciplines. The integrated technology involved in the shipbuilding industry has a strong ductility. In addition to the shipbuilding and shipbuilding equipment, it can also be extended to the non-shipbuilding industry to meet the development of other aspects of the national economy. But the international shipping industry has been hit hard by the European debt crisis, falling demand for ships and overcapacity in the shipping industry. In the face of declining profits, rising costs and decreasing orders in the shipbuilding industry, the number of orders for high profits has become smaller and smaller, while orders for low and even negative profits are increasing day by day. As profits shrink, shipbuilding enterprises have to find another way out. This paper reverses the idea of only relying on gross profit margin to select orders, and focuses on the marginal contribution rate, which is more closely related to cost. In this paper, with the help of enterprise management decision theory and variable cost theory, based on regression analysis, an order pricing model is constructed, which is combined with the production decision of special orders. The Chengxi Shipyard is taken as an example. The application of order pricing model and production decision of special order in Chengxi Shipyard is studied. Through the introduction of related cost theory concept and SPSS regression analysis method, the ship manufacturing cost is analyzed, and the cost data and order pricing data are analyzed and verified step by SPSS software. Thus, the order pricing model of shipbuilding enterprises is put forward. Combined with the theory of order pricing model and marginal contribution, the special orders of shipbuilding enterprises are judged, and the production decision model of special orders is analyzed in detail. On this basis, combined with the production and management data of Chengxi Shipyard, the application of order pricing model and special order production decision model in Chengxi Shipyard is analyzed. It is hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical support to the shipbuilding enterprises concerned in the decision of order production, reduce the difficulty of order selection, and change the management difficulties of the enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.474

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