CFQF柴油发动机生产线投资项目财务评价和风险分析

发布时间：2018-05-25 03:41

本文选题：发动机生产线 + 财务评价　；参考：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国汽车行业迎来了高速发展的历史机遇,产销量连续六年蝉联世界第一。随着能源的愈加紧张和国家社会对环境保护的更加重视,低油耗、低排放的新型柴油发动机越来越受到市场青睐。CFQF公司柴油发动机生产线投资项目是CFQF公司响应国家环保、能源政策,顺应行业发展需求趋势,而决心投资的“十三五规划”重点项目。该项目建成后,CFQF公司将成为国内重要的轻型柴油发动机供应商,能够满足国内SUV、高端轻卡、轻客、船舶等产业动力需求。本文拟通过对该投资项目的财务评价和风险分析,就项目投资决策提供依据,确保项目的经济可行。此次案例的分析也将对汽车发动机产业类似项目的投资建设提供重要的借鉴和参考。首先,本文对相关理论和方法作了介绍,为后面项目效益评估和风险分析的研究提供了理论依据。其次,本文从项目背景、项目建设必要性、项目建设条件、工程技术方案和市场分析等方面介绍了项目的基本情况,为项目效益评估和风险分析提供了必要的参数和内容。然后,在编制财务报表的基础上,重点计算分析了内部收益率、财务净现值等财务指标,进行了不确定性分析。对项目的风险进行识别和评价,并提出了应对措施。最后,得出了项目经济指标可行合理,经济效益较好,风险可控的结论,帮助项目决策。本文运用SWOT分析法对实施项目的内外部环境进行了分析。在估算项目总成本费用、销售收入和利润等财务数据的基础上,编制了现金流量表、利润表和资产负债表,重点对项目的财务评价指标内部收益率、财务净现值、投资回收期、资产负债率进行了计算分析。对项目建设进度风险、市场风险、技术风险、配套条件风险等风险因素进行了识别,采取风险概率和影响矩阵方法进行了分析,并就控制风险的优先顺序进行了排序,而且提出了行之有效、切实可行的风险管理规划。运用盈亏平衡分析方法和单因素敏感性分析方法对项目不确定性进行了分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's auto industry ushered in a historical opportunity of rapid development, production and sales for six consecutive years ranked first in the world. With the increasing stress of energy and the attention of national society to environmental protection, new diesel engines with low fuel consumption and low emissions are becoming more and more popular in the market. The investment project of diesel engine production line of CFQF Company is CFQF Company's response to the national environmental protection. Energy policy, in line with the trend of industry development needs, and determined to invest in the "Thirteenth five-year Plan" key projects. After the completion of the project, CFQF will become an important domestic light diesel engine supplier, can meet the domestic SUV, high-end light truck, light passenger, ship and other industrial power needs. Through the financial evaluation and risk analysis of the investment project, this paper provides the basis for the project investment decision to ensure the economic feasibility of the project. The analysis of this case will also provide important reference for the investment and construction of similar projects in automobile engine industry. Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant theories and methods, which provides the theoretical basis for the research of benefit evaluation and risk analysis. Secondly, this paper introduces the basic situation of the project from the aspects of project background, project construction necessity, project construction condition, engineering technical scheme and market analysis, and provides necessary parameters and contents for project benefit evaluation and risk analysis. Then, on the basis of preparing financial statements, the internal rate of return, financial net present value and other financial indicators are calculated and analyzed, and uncertainty analysis is carried out. The risk of the project is identified and evaluated, and countermeasures are put forward. Finally, the conclusion that the economic index of the project is feasible and reasonable, the economic benefit is good and the risk is controllable is obtained, which helps the project decision-making. This paper uses SWOT analysis method to analyze the internal and external environment of the project. On the basis of estimating financial data such as total cost, sales income and profit of the project, a statement of cash flow, a statement of income and a balance sheet are compiled, with emphasis on the internal rate of return, the financial net present value, and the investment payback period of the financial evaluation index of the project. The ratio of assets and liabilities is calculated and analyzed. Risk factors such as project construction schedule risk, market risk, technical risk, matching condition risk and so on are identified, risk probability and influence matrix method are used to analyze the risk factors, and the priority order of control risk is listed. And put forward effective, feasible risk management plan. The method of break-even analysis and single factor sensitivity analysis are used to analyze the uncertainty of the project.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.471

【共引文献】