大型工程项目财务风险传导机理研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 02:06

本文选题：大型工程项目 + 财务风险　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为拉动中国经济增长的三驾马车之一，投资拉动经济增长效应最为显著。为了遏制金融危机的肆虐，我国分别于2008年、2012年启动投资的计划大部分投向基础设施建设、水利交通事业等民生行业，其中不乏为数众多的大型工程建设项目。大型工程项目的财务风险随着项目规模的扩大而急剧增加，工程项目各个相关利益者之间财务风险的传导也使得总体风险进一步加剧。存在巨大的筹资风险，极大的经济风险和市场风险，一旦风险爆发，最后都将引发巨大财务后果。对项目风险管理、风险监控提出了新的挑战。大型工程项目特点有：投资规模大，建设周期长，经济风险大；技术复杂，有巨大的技术风险性；具有综合战略地位和特殊的资源要求，建设难度大；在社会发展和国民经济中占有重要的战略地位；永久性工程，一旦开始，具有不可逆转性；效益突变性大。实施过程中财务风险的监控是大型工程项目风险管理的重中之重。如何预警与防范监控大型工程项目的财务风险，系统的探究财务风险形成过程与传导机理，成为亟待研究的课题。本文以风险传导理论、财务监控理论、工程项目管理理论、系统理论为指导，首先，界定了大型工程项目财务风险传导的涵义，分析了大型工程项目财务风险传导随机性、突发性、依存性、联动性和非可逆性的特征；其次，分析了大型工程项目财务风险传导的构成要素：风险源、风险流、风险载体、风险传导路径、风险阈值、风险事件与风险子系统；再次，揭示了大型工程项目财务风险传导机理及风险表征；第四，探究了大型工程项目财务风险传导的动态过程和传导规律；第五，从大型工程项目财务风险传导的构成要素入手，从监控大型工程项目财务风险源、提高风险阈值以抑制延缓风险迸发释放、监控引导财务风险传导路径、密切监控财务风险传导过程等方面提出大型工程项目财务风险传导的有效监控措施；最后，构建了大型工程项目财务风险传导评价指标体系，以32家主营业务为建筑工程的上市公司2008-2011年的财务数据为样本，运用回归分析等方法对大型工程项目财务风险传导进行经验证据分析并提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the troika that stimulates China's economic growth, the effect of investment-driven economic growth is most remarkable. In order to contain the raging financial crisis, most of the investment projects started in 2008 and 2012 were invested in infrastructure construction, water conservancy and transportation, and other people's livelihood industries, among which there are a large number of large-scale construction projects. The financial risk of large engineering project increases rapidly with the expansion of project scale, and the transmission of financial risk among the relevant stakeholders of the project makes the overall risk more serious. There are huge financing risks, great economic risks and market risks. Once the risks erupt, they will eventually lead to huge financial consequences. New challenges to project risk management and risk monitoring are presented. The characteristics of large-scale engineering projects are: large scale of investment, long construction period, large economic risk, complex technology, huge technical risk, comprehensive strategic position and special resource requirements, and great difficulty in construction. It plays an important strategic role in social development and national economy. The monitoring of financial risk is the most important part of risk management in large engineering projects. How to forewarn and prevent the financial risks of large engineering projects and systematically explore the formation process and transmission mechanism of financial risks has become an urgent task to be studied. Under the guidance of risk transmission theory, financial monitoring theory, engineering project management theory and system theory, this paper firstly defines the meaning of financial risk transmission of large engineering project, and analyzes the randomness of financial risk transmission of large engineering project. Secondly, it analyzes the components of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects: risk source, risk flow, risk carrier, risk transmission path, risk threshold. Risk event and risk subsystem; thirdly, it reveals the financial risk transmission mechanism and risk characterization of large engineering projects; fourth, explores the dynamic process and transmission law of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects; fifth, Starting with the constituent elements of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects, the financial risk sources of large engineering projects are monitored, the risk threshold is raised to restrain the release of risks, and the path of financial risk transmission is guided by monitoring and guiding. The effective monitoring measures for financial risk transmission of large engineering projects are put forward in the aspects of close monitoring of financial risk transmission process, and finally, the evaluation index system of financial risk transmission for large engineering projects is constructed. Based on the financial data of 32 listed companies whose main business is construction engineering during 2008-2011, the empirical evidence of financial risk transmission of large engineering projects is analyzed by means of regression analysis and some policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F285

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