中国与SCO成员国双边贸易成本的测算及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-03 17:48

本文选题：上海合作组织 + 双边贸易成本测算　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在传统贸易理论模型中,贸易成本这一变量一直都被假定为外生变量,并被排除在基本理论模型之外。随着国际贸易理论不断革新,作为国际贸易是否发生的核心影响因素,贸易成本受到越来越高的重视,被广泛采纳与运用到相关研究领域中去。上海合作组织(简称上合组织或SCO)自成以来,对稳定区域内安全环境,推动成员国投资贸易便利化,激发区域内经济合作潜力作出了重大贡献。随着全球专业化分工程度不断提升,上合组织进一步加强区内经贸合作也是势在必行。本文希望通过对中国与上合组织成员国双边贸易成本进行系统研究,梳理影响双边贸易成本的相关因素,能够提高双边交易效率,降低双边贸易成本,释放经贸合作潜力,推动上合组织向更加开放、更加自由和联系更趋紧密的多边区域组织发展。除绪论外,本文将从四个部分展开论述。第一部分,本文主要分析中国与SCO成员国双边贸易现状,结果显示:双边贸易中的进出口规模都较小,但贸易增长速度较快,与俄罗斯的双边贸易额占据中国与上合组织成员国总贸易额的绝大部分比例;中国与上合组织成员国的商品贸易结构仍然是以中国进口初级产品、出口资本/技术密集型和劳动密集型产品为主,双边贸易互补性较强。第二部分,本文采用Novy(2008)贸易成本测算方法对1995年-2013年中国与SCO成员国的双边贸易成本展开测算,辅以中德、中美和中日双边贸易成本的变化作为参照,从不同视角进行对比分析,分析结果表明:中国与收入水平较高的发达国家之间贸易成本较之上合组织成员国要低,距离上的劣势并没有鲜明的体现在双边贸易成本上,距离正在逐步消亡;长期来看,中国与各国的双边贸易成本都呈现下降趋势,尤其是中国入世以及上合组织成立后,平均贸易成本下降更加明显。此外,本文通过数理推导,构建双边贸易增长分解模型,模型的实证结果表明收入增长以及贸易成本的下降促进了双边贸易额增长,收入增长是双边贸易增长的最大推动力量。第三部分,本文从定性和定量两方面对影响中国与SCO成员国双边贸易成本的因素展开分析,分析结果显示,在地理、金融、经济、政治治理、组织和基础设施建设等方面的因素对双边贸易成本变化影响显著,实证结果表明:加强对腐败的治理不利于降低双边贸易成本,反而会增加;上合组织的成立鲜明地降低了双边贸易成本;双边贸易成本受人民币兑美元汇率波动的影响是最大的。第四部分,综合前文定性和定量分析的结果,本文从上合组织框架下推动人民币区域化、自由贸易区建设和贸易投资便利化制度建设三个角度提出相应对策。
[Abstract]:In the traditional trade theory model, the variable of trade cost is always assumed to be an exogenous variable and excluded from the basic theoretical model. With the continuous innovation of international trade theory, as the core influence factor of international trade, trade cost is paid more and more attention, and widely adopted and applied in related research fields. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO or SCO) has made great contributions to stabilizing the regional security environment promoting the investment and trade facilitation of member countries and stimulating the potential of regional economic cooperation. With the increasing degree of global specialization, it is imperative for SCO to further strengthen regional economic and trade cooperation. This paper hopes that through a systematic study of bilateral trade costs between China and SCO member countries, the relevant factors affecting bilateral trade costs can be combed to improve the efficiency of bilateral transactions, reduce bilateral trade costs, and release the potential for economic and trade cooperation. To promote the SCO towards more open, more liberal and closer ties of multilateral regional organizations. In addition to the introduction, this article will be discussed from four parts. In the first part, this paper mainly analyzes the current situation of bilateral trade between China and SCO member countries. The results show that the scale of bilateral trade is small, but the growth rate of trade is relatively fast. The bilateral trade volume with Russia accounts for the vast majority of the total trade volume between China and SCO members; the commodity trade structure between China and SCO member countries is still based on China's imports of primary products. Exports of capital / technology-intensive and labor-intensive products dominated, and bilateral trade was highly complementary. In the second part, this paper uses Novy (2008) to measure the bilateral trade cost between China and SCO member countries from 1995 to 2013, with the change of bilateral trade cost between China and Germany, China and America and China and Japan as reference. The results show that the trade cost between China and developed countries with higher income level is lower than that of SCO member countries, and the disadvantage in distance is not reflected in bilateral trade costs. In the long run, bilateral trade costs between China and other countries are on the decline, especially after China's entry into WTO and the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In addition, this paper constructs a decomposition model of bilateral trade growth through mathematical derivation. The empirical results show that income growth and the decline of trade costs promote bilateral trade growth, and income growth is the biggest driving force of bilateral trade growth. In the third part, the paper analyzes the factors that affect the bilateral trade cost between China and SCO member countries from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The results show that, in geographical, financial, economic and political governance, Factors such as organization and infrastructure construction have a significant impact on bilateral trade costs. The empirical results show that: strengthening the governance of corruption is not conducive to reducing bilateral trade costs, but will increase; The establishment of the SCO has sharply reduced bilateral trade costs, which are most affected by the volatility of the yuan against the dollar. The fourth part, synthesizing the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures from three angles of promoting RMB regionalization, free trade area construction and trade and investment facilitation system construction under the framework of SCO.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F740.45

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